At first glance, the problem appears straightforward: if Iran obstructs the Strait of Hormuz, surely the United States and its allies can deploy naval power, clear the route, and restore freedom of navigation. In practice, the situation is far more difficult. The central issue is not whether Washington and its partners can project force into the region. They can. The issue is that reopening the Strait and guaranteeing normal commercial safety are two different things. Even now, after weeks of disruption, a small number of vessels linked to Oman, France, and Japan have been able to pass — but only in what looks increasingly like selective, politically conditioned transit rather than the restoration of ordinary maritime freedom.
The Strait matters because it is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, flows through Hormuz in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 accounted for more than one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade, about one-fifth of global oil and petroleum product consumption, and around one-fifth of global LNG trade. Any prolonged disruption there therefore affects not only Gulf exporters, but also Asian importers, shipping markets, insurers, refiners, and ultimately consumers well beyond the Middle East.
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