What Will Happen to the World Economy Over the Next Six Months: Three Realistic Scenarios

In spring 2026, the central question for the world economy is no longer whether the Middle East war will inflict damage, but what kind of damage it will produce over the coming six months. The International Monetary Fund has already reset the baseline. In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, it projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 under a limited-conflict assumption, while warning that rising commodity prices, firmer inflation expectations and tighter financial conditions are testing the economy’s recent resilience. (IMF)

That shift matters because the baseline is now clearly weaker than the one markets were using before the Gulf shock intensified. Reuters reported that, in the IMF’s severe scenario, global inflation in 2026 would rise above 6%, versus 4.4% in the Fund’s reference scenario. This means the debate is no longer about a smooth return to normality, but about how persistent the inflation shock becomes and how deeply it feeds into growth, trade and financial conditions. (IMF)

What Will Happen to European Property Prices as the Gulf Crisis Unfolds

European property markets entered the new Gulf crisis in a far more delicate position than headline price data initially suggested. Eurostat said house prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 were up 5.1% year on year in the euro area and 5.5% across the EU, which points to a market that had been recovering rather than collapsing. But by early April 2026, UK data already showed how vulnerable that recovery was to a fresh energy and rates shock: Halifax reported a 0.5% monthly fall in house prices in March, while RICS said buyer demand, sales expectations and price expectations had all deteriorated sharply.

The main transmission mechanism is straightforward. The Gulf crisis affects European real estate not directly, but through higher energy prices, higher inflation expectations and more expensive money. The ECB said in March that the war in the Middle East had made the outlook “significantly more uncertain”, creating upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, and it revised its 2026 headline inflation projection up to 2.6% because energy prices would be higher. Even after the ceasefire announcement, Reuters reported that oil remained about 40% above pre-conflict levels, which means the inflation shock has eased from panic territory but not disappeared.

What the United Nations Security Council Is: Its History and Its Condition Today

The United Nations Security Council is the body to which the UN Charter gives primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. It has 15 members, each with one vote, and UN member states are obliged to comply with Council decisions adopted under the Charter. Unlike many other UN bodies, it is not merely a forum for debate. It is the institution that can investigate threats to peace, call for peaceful settlement, impose sanctions, and in some cases authorise the use of force.

Its origins lie in the post-war settlement of 1945. The UN Charter was signed in San Francisco on 26 June 1945 and entered into force on 24 October 1945. The Security Council was created because the founders of the United Nations wanted more than a diplomatic assembly; they wanted a mechanism capable of acting quickly when international peace was under direct threat.

Tehran’s Maritime Tollgate: How Iran Is Trying to Turn the Strait of Hormuz into a Paid Corridor

Iran is not placing a barrier across the water. It is building a system of licences, selective access, military pressure and political control that could make passage through Hormuz conditional rather than free. 

The Strait of Hormuz cannot be closed with a literal barrier. It is not a canal with a toll booth and it is not a port with gates. Yet Iran is attempting to achieve something close to the same result by different means: turning an international strait into a space where passage depends not only on maritime law, but on political permission, military control and prior coordination with Tehran. That is the real physical meaning of the system Iran is now trying to build.

Reuters reported on 7 April that Tehran wants the right, as part of a broader peace arrangement, to charge ships for transiting Hormuz. According to that report, Iranian officials said the fee would vary depending on the type of vessel, the cargo and the prevailing conditions. Reuters also reported that Iran says it is working with Oman on a protocol under which ships would need permits and licences in order to pass through the strait, although Oman had not publicly confirmed such an agreement at the time.

Asian Business Mission 2026 in Almaty

On April 12, 2026, Almaty will host Asian Business Mission 2026, an international business platform that will bring together entrepreneurs, business leaders, investors, and innovators from across Asia and beyond. The event is set to become one of the key business gatherings in the region, strengthening Almaty’s role as an emerging centre for cross-border cooperation and entrepreneurial development.

Asian Business Week 2026 is designed to foster international partnerships, investment opportunities, and strategic dialogue. The programme will include high-level business forums, networking sessions, startup presentations, and partnership development meetings, creating a dynamic environment where ideas can evolve into real business opportunities.

The event will be held under the auspices of BOSS Business Club, World Woman Club and the European Association of Business Development, reinforcing its international статус and positioning it within a broader global ecosystem of business collaboration and leadership.

When the UN Could Not Act: What the Failed Hormuz Resolution Revealed About Global Power

A watered-down Security Council resolution on protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz still failed after Russia and China used their vetoes. The result was more than a diplomatic setback. It exposed how far the United Nations can be paralysed when great-power rivalry collides with a live strategic crisis. 

The failed United Nations vote on the Strait of Hormuz was not simply another procedural clash in New York. It became a test of whether the international system could respond quickly and credibly when one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints was under pressure. It failed that test. On 7 April 2026, Russia and China vetoed a Security Council resolution aimed at coordinating international efforts to protect commercial shipping through Hormuz, despite the fact that the draft had already been weakened in an attempt to make it acceptable to them.

The arithmetic of the vote was politically revealing. Eleven of the Council’s fifteen members voted in favour. Russia and China voted against. Pakistan and Colombia abstained. In any ordinary political forum, that would have been enough to pass the measure. In the Security Council, however, the veto remains the decisive instrument of power, and once it was used, the resolution was finished regardless of how broad the wider support had been.