Euro Set to Strengthen Against Sterling in 2027: What Analysts Expect

The pound is trading near a relatively strong level against the euro, but most institutional forecasts suggest that this advantage will narrow during 2027. As of 3 November 2026, the market rate stood at approximately £1 = €1.198, equivalent to €1 = £0.835.

No currency analyst has a perfect forecasting record. Exchange rates respond to interest-rate decisions, inflation, economic growth, energy prices, government finances and geopolitical events. A credible assessment must therefore consider a range of scenarios rather than present a single figure as certain.

Democrats Win Both Chambers of Congress

The Democratic Party has won control of both the US House of Representatives and the Senate in the 3 November 2026 midterm elections, ending two years of unified Republican government. The result represents a severe political setback for President Donald Trump and will impose substantial limits on his administration during the final two years of his second term.

Democrats crossed the 218-seat threshold required to control the House early on Wednesday. They also captured enough Republican-held Senate seats to secure a majority in the 100-member chamber. Several congressional contests remain uncalled, so the final size of each majority may not be known for several days. Control of Congress, however, is no longer in doubt.

The devolution gap is now a £7 billion problem for Glasgow

By Stuart Patrick, Chief Executive, Glasgow Chamber of Commerce

The Prime Minister’s passion for regional devolution is posing an urgent dilemma for Glasgow Chamber of Commerce members. Scotland’s major cities are at risk of falling well behind England’s city regions in both powers and access to investment. How will our major cities compete in the battle for private investment and talent attraction if no agreement is reached between the Scottish and UK Governments on how far city region empowerment should progress in Scotland?

America Votes: Democrats Enter the 2026 Midterms Ahead, but the Senate Remains Uncertain

The first clarification is important: the United States holds its midterm elections on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, and, as of 2 November, no official election results have been released. Early voting has been under way for several weeks, but participation figures and opinion polls should not be confused with counted votes. The information currently available therefore indicates the direction of the contest rather than its final outcome.

Voters will decide control of the House of Representatives, the Senate, 36 governorships and thousands of state and local offices. Republicans enter Election Day with narrow majorities of 218–214 in the House and 53–47 in the Senate. Democrats consequently need a net gain of four seats in each chamber. More than 100 million Americans are expected to vote, while political advertising expenditure had already reached a record $3.8 billion by 12 October.

“Mr Veto”: What Trump Can—and Cannot—Block if Democrats Win Congress

President Donald Trump has warned that he would become “Mr Veto” if Democrats gain control of Congress in the 3 November midterm elections. Describing how he would respond to legislation passed by a Democratic majority, Trump said: “They’ll be sending stuff up. You veto it.” He added that, after a period of confrontation, the parties would probably have to negotiate: “At some point, we’ll probably make deals.”

The statement is a declaration of political strategy rather than a new legal power. Trump is suggesting that he would use repeated vetoes to prevent a Democratic Congress from reversing his policies and to force its leaders into negotiations. The White House is also reportedly preparing to rely more heavily on executive authority in areas such as tariffs, immigration, federal grants and regulation if Republicans lose control of Congress. Such executive actions would remain subject to statutory limits and judicial review.

WESIO International Executive Programmes: Special Trainings for Decision-Makers

Economic development depends on the quality of a country’s workforce, but the effect of skills is not evenly distributed. Decisions made by ministers, senior civil servants, chief executives and directors of state-owned infrastructure companies influence entire sectors, public budgets and investment programmes. When these leaders allocate capital well, negotiate balanced international agreements and introduce suitable technologies, their decisions can raise productivity across thousands of businesses. When they make poor choices, the cost can persist for decades.

This makes the qualified international training of senior decision-makers an economic necessity. Executive competence should be treated as a form of institutional capital: knowledge embedded in the people responsible for converting national resources into functioning infrastructure, competitive industries and investable projects.

Europe Grows Faster Than Expected, but Inflation Complicates the Recovery

The euro-area economy expanded by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2026, twice the 0.2% growth forecast by economists. Output was 1.3% higher than a year earlier. The figures suggest that European households and businesses continued spending despite expensive energy, weak external demand and geopolitical uncertainty.

Performance varied considerably across the region. Germany recorded quarterly growth of 0.2%, offering some relief after a prolonged period of industrial weakness. Spain and the Netherlands each grew by 0.6%, while Italy’s economy remained unchanged. France contracted by 0.1% amid political uncertainty and concerns over public finances.

Lagarde is leaving at a point when the ECB must choose between two competing risks

Christine Lagarde has announced that she will leave her position as President of the European Central Bank on 7 February 2027, several months before the formal end of her eight-year term. This is a significant development for Europe’s financial system: the ECB president influences interest rates, the value of the euro, sovereign borrowing costs and access to credit across the 21 countries of the euro area.

There is currently insufficient evidence to suggest that her departure is connected to a scandal, dismissal or an already agreed appointment elsewhere. The confirmed fact is that she intends to leave the ECB early. Reports of a radical career change should therefore be treated cautiously until Lagarde or the ECB provides a fuller explanation and announces her future plans.

Fire Over Novokuibyshevsk: What the Refinery Strike Means for Russia’s Oil Economy

On the morning of 30 October 2026, a major fire broke out at the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region following a drone attack. Videos published by local residents showed several columns of thick black smoke rising over the facility. Ukrainian defence company Fire Point said that its long-range FP-1 drones had recorded multiple strikes, including damage to a diesel hydrotreatment unit.

It would, however, be premature to describe the refinery as completely destroyed. Russian authorities confirmed an attack on the Samara region but did not disclose the condition of the plant. At the time of publication, there was no independent assessment of the damage, the likely duration of any shutdown or possible casualties. Even a visually extensive fire does not necessarily mean the loss of the refinery’s entire capacity: the consequences depend on which processing units, power systems, storage facilities and pipelines were damaged.

DNIPRO STATION STRIKE KILLS AT LEAST 14 AS LOCAL TRUCE HOLDS ELSEWHERE

The attack on a crowded railway platform exposes the narrow limits of the Oleshky humanitarian ceasefire as Ukraine, Russia and the United States prepare for new negotiations.

A Russian jet-powered drone struck the main railway station in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on 29 October, hitting a crowded platform where passenger and commuter trains were preparing to depart. At least 14 people were killed and 14 injured, six of them seriously. Later Ukrainian reports placed the death toll at 15. Among those receiving hospital treatment was an 11-year-old boy.

Israel’s Final Election Results Leave Netanyahu Without a Majority

Likud remains the largest party, but a record result for Arab-led parties has changed the balance of power in the Knesset

Israel’s final election count has confirmed a divided parliament and no immediate path to a stable government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political alliance finished ahead of its opponents but secured only 53 of the 120 seats in the Knesset—eight fewer than the 61 required for a governing majority.

Netanyahu’s Likud remained the country’s largest party with 27 seats. Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party won 21, while the wider opposition bloc received 48 seats. The Joint List and Ra’am, Israel’s two principal Arab-led groupings, secured a combined 19 seats—their strongest result to date. Final turnout reached 77.9%, with more than 5.7 million votes cast.

The result is a serious reversal for Netanyahu’s governing coalition, which previously controlled 68 seats at its peak. Yet it is not a clear victory for the opposition. Eisenkot and his allies remain 13 seats short of a majority unless they reach an agreement with at least some Arab representatives.

Three Possible Routes to Government

Netanyahu’s most direct option is to persuade opposition politicians or entire factions to join his right-wing, religious and ultra-Orthodox alliance. As Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, he has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to divide opposing coalitions. This time, however, he would need at least eight additional members—far more than a small number of individual defections.

A second possibility is an Eisenkot-led administration supported by the Arab parties. Together, the opposition bloc and Arab factions would control 67 seats. The arithmetic works, but the politics are difficult. Yashar and several of its partners campaigned on promises that they would not form a government dependent on Arab parties. Breaking those commitments could provoke resistance inside the opposition and among voters whose attitudes have hardened since the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023.

The third option is a broad unity government bringing Likud together with centrist or secular opposition parties. Such a coalition could command a comfortable majority, but it would require major concessions. Netanyahu might have to separate from some of his far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners, while Eisenkot and his allies would have to abandon their central campaign promise of removing Netanyahu from power.

If all three routes fail, Israel could face another election early in 2027.

Arab Voters Change the Parliamentary Arithmetic

The election’s most consequential result may be the rise of the Joint List and Ra’am from a combined 10 seats in the outgoing parliament to 19 in the new one. Their success means that neither major bloc can easily form a government while excluding the representatives of around one-fifth of Israel’s population.

This influence does not guarantee participation in government. The Joint List has indicated that it could support an alternative administration from outside the coalition, while Ra’am has previous experience as a coalition partner. In 2021, it became the first independent Arab party to join an Israeli governing alliance.

Netanyahu and members of Likud responded to the Arab parties’ result with allegations of electoral fraud and foreign interference. No evidence of systematic fraud has been established. The Central Elections Committee said that circulated claims were unfounded and would not affect the results submitted to the president. Election officials and Israel’s domestic security service also warned against placing collective suspicion on Arab citizens who voted lawfully.

What Happens Next?

The Central Elections Committee is expected to present the official results to President Isaac Herzog on 4 November. Herzog will then consult the parliamentary factions and select the candidate he believes has the best prospect of forming a government. That person does not automatically have to be the leader of the largest party.

Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister throughout the negotiations. If the first candidate fails, another can be given the opportunity. The process could last for weeks or even extend beyond two months. The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on 10 November, regardless of whether a governing coalition has been agreed.

The eventual outcome will influence Israel’s military policy in Gaza, its confrontation with Iran, settlement activity in the West Bank and relations with the United States. It will also determine whether the country moves towards a more inclusive political arrangement or returns to the cycle of repeated elections that marked the years before Netanyahu’s previous coalition took office.

Netanyahu has retained the largest political bloc, but he has lost the parliamentary majority that sustained his government. Eisenkot has enough support to challenge him, but not enough to govern independently. Arab-led parties possess unprecedented negotiating power, yet remain politically excluded by many of the partners whose support they could make decisive.

Israel’s voters have redrawn the balance of power. The harder question is whether its political leaders can now turn that result into a government.