By 2050, the economic map of the world may look very different from what we know today.
According to long-term projections by Goldman Sachs, the centre of gravity of global GDP is expected to shift decisively away from today’s developed markets and towards emerging Asia.
The Big Picture: Who Owns Global GDP in 2050?
In 2050 (in constant 2021 USD), global GDP is projected to total about $227.9 trillion. Here’s how that pie is expected to be divided:
-
Asia (excluding developed markets): $90.6 trillion – 40%
-
Developed Markets (DM): $82.9 trillion – 36%
-
Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa (CEEMEA): $38.3 trillion – 17%
-
Latin America: $16.0 trillion – 7%
The headline shift is clear:
Emerging Asia is projected to become the largest regional contributor to world GDP, with 40% of the total, edging ahead of traditional Developed Markets at 36%.
To see how dramatic this is, compare it with the year 2000. At that time, developed economies (North America, Western Europe, Japan, etc.) accounted for more than 77% of global GDP. By 2050, their share is expected to fall to just over a third.
Asia’s Rise: Beyond the “China Story”
When people think about Asia’s economic success, they often focus on China – and for good reason. But the 2050 picture is not just about China.
China: Still huge, but slowing
China and India together are expected to generate the majority of Asia’s GDP by 2050. However, the era of double-digit Chinese growth will be long over.
-
Annual real GDP growth in China is projected to average around 1.1% in the 2050s.
-
That’s slower than the US, where growth is still expected to be about 1.4% in the same decade.
China will remain an economic giant, but it will look more like a mature, ageing economy: slower growth, higher incomes, and structural pressures from demographics and debt.
India, Bangladesh, Philippines: The new growth engines
The real momentum in Asia’s numbers comes from younger, faster-growing economies:
-
India: projected to grow about 3.1% annually in real terms during the 2050s
-
Bangladesh: about 3.0% annually
-
Philippines: about 3.5% annually
What do they have in common?
-
Young populations with relatively low median ages
-
Rising labour forces, as more people enter working age
-
Ongoing urbanisation and industrialisation
-
Potential for productivity gains as education, technology and infrastructure improve
If these trends hold, the economic story of Asia in 2050 will be less “China-only” and more “multi-engine”, with South and Southeast Asia playing a leading role.
Latin America: A Smaller Slice Than Hoped
Latin America’s projected share of global GDP in 2050 is just 7%. That’s modest for such a large and resource-rich region.
Goldman Sachs’ earlier forecasts (around 2011) were more optimistic, but many economies in the region have underperformed since then. A key example is Brazil:
-
Brazil’s real GDP fell from about $2.7 trillion in 2010 to around $1.5 trillion in 2020.
-
Political instability, low productivity growth, and repeated crises have all weighed on performance.
Because of this underperformance, the bank now expects Indonesia – a large, fast-growing Asian economy – to overtake Brazil as the world’s largest emerging market sometime before 2050.
However, this doesn’t mean Latin America disappears from the map:
-
If the projections hold, Brazil’s ranking could still climb above France and Canada by 2050.
-
The region retains strong potential in commodities, agriculture, renewables, services and tourism – but it needs more consistent reforms and investment to close the gap with faster-growing Asia.
CEEMEA: The Middle of the Global Table
The group of Central & Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa is projected to contribute about 17% of world GDP in 2050.
This region is extremely diverse, but several themes stand out:
-
Demographics: Many African countries have very young populations and rapid population growth, creating both opportunities (large workforces) and challenges (jobs, education, governance).
-
Energy and resources: The Middle East and parts of Africa will continue to be key energy and commodity suppliers, but will also face pressure to diversify as the world moves towards cleaner energy.
-
Convergence potential: Central & Eastern European countries can keep catching up with Western Europe if they maintain integration, investment and institutional quality.
The headline: CEEMEA could be a major “swing region” in the global economy, with large upside if reforms and stability are sustained.
Developed Markets: Still Big, But No Longer Dominant
By 2050, developed economies – the US, Canada, Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia and others – are expected to produce about $82.9 trillion in real GDP, or 36% of the world total.
This is still a huge share, and the US in particular is projected to remain one of the largest and most innovative economies on earth. However:
-
Their relative weight in the world economy will be much lower than in 2000.
-
Growth rates will be modest, reflecting ageing populations and already high income levels.
Rather than being the sole “centre” of the world economy, developed markets will become one of several major hubs.
What This Means for the Next Generation
If these projections are even roughly correct, the world of 2050 will be:
-
More Asian in terms of GDP weight
-
More multi-polar, with no single region dominating
-
More dependent on emerging markets, where most of the growth will happen
For future entrepreneurs, investors and policymakers, several implications follow:
-
Markets of the future will be in Asia, Africa and parts of Latin America – not just in North America and Western Europe.
-
Demographics matter: younger, expanding populations can drive growth, but only if countries invest in education, health and jobs.
-
Diversification is key: regions that rely too heavily on a single sector or commodity may struggle if global trends shift.
Finally, it’s important to remember that these are projections, not guarantees. Political shocks, technological breakthroughs, climate risks or policy choices can speed up or slow down any of these paths.
But the broad message is clear:
By 2050, the story of the global economy will be written far beyond today’s traditional power centres — with emerging Asia playing the leading role.