It took a week to put together a picture of all the trash that swirled around us. Finally, we did. This text should be supplemented with important details that will become known later, but I am publishing it quickly so that we can get acquainted with the new reality. But first of all, pour yourself some tea so that you have enough strength to read to the end.
1. So, the old world order has come to an end.
The old world order, based on rules, agreements and values, no longer exists. It was never perfect, but it existed. Now it no longer exists.
The reasons for the destruction of the world order should be described in a separate article, here I will only briefly note that developed countries benefited from the world order, and developing countries (those that are developing and catching up or at least pretending to) tried to destroy it, because it is unprofitable. At some point, developing countries (primarily China) began to catch up with developed ones, and the most powerful developed country, the USA, decided that it was time to move from protecting the old order to destroying it. That is why the American people elected Trump, who became the exponent of this idea. This is not a coincidence, but the embodiment of a trend (like everything else in the world). Previously, on one side they would tear down the supporting structure, on the other they would support and repair it; now the structure is being destroyed from both sides, and it will go much faster.
In this “new world without order”, the USA will not protect its European or Asian allies. In this world, there are now no alliances and allies, no mutual obligations, and old treaties can be revised unilaterally. There are only big strong countries that take what they want, and small weak ones that become victims of such policies. At least, this is how the new American administration sees the world. They are not isolationists – they are expansionists, and we should not be surprised by the demands for Greenland, Canada or Panama now.
Obviously, the current American administration is not monolithic. It consists of many groups with quite different values and interests, but for now, I will mention only the two most important ones. Let us call them America First and the techno-oligarchs (it would be more correct to call them techno-fascists, using this word not as an insult, but to denote their ideology). America First dreams of destroying the world order, but strengthening the American state so that America dominates the world. The techno-oligarchs dream of destroying the world order, including the American state, so that their techno-corporations dominate the world.
The strategy of the first group is described in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. The strategy of the techno-oligarchs is formed by Musk, Thiel, Sachs and other representatives of this cohort. These two groups have opposing views on taxation, intelligence agencies, migrants (techno-oligarchs need talent from all over the world, America First against migrants) and other issues, so sooner or later they will quarrel. But for now, they are united in their desire to destroy what was as quickly as possible. “We will destroy the whole world of violence, uproot it, and then…” – we have already heard it somewhere.
The New America does not want to be a global policeman and monitor order in the world. It will not defend democracy, spread education, develop institutions, etc. – it only needs your assets from you (previously only China did this). The New America does not believe in alliances and agreements, it believes in the right of the strong in a multipolar world. If you are strong, do what you want. If you are weak, give away “clothes, boots and a motorcycle”, as the Terminator said. This is neocolonialism, whether in economic or in force format.
The New America does not believe in multilateralism, that is, it does not need international institutions, so it is not excluded that in the near future, the US will withdraw from NATO (if not formally, then in fact), the World Trade Organization, and maybe even the UN. Musk will explain this by the need to save American money from being wasted, Trump - by the inoperability of institutions (and he will be right, but instead of repairing he will propose to demolish everything to zero), Project 2025 - by the fact that if the US needs to help someone, they can do it directly, "without unnecessary bureaucrats."
2. What does the new American policy mean for Europe?
The security contract with Europe, “Pax Americana,” is over. Europe as a centre of power is not beneficial to America: now it is not an ally (because there are no allies), but an alternative centre of power – and the fewer centres of power, the better. And here America’s goals coincide with those of Russia and China: to separate Europe from America, to break up the European Union, and to keep Europe weak, disunited, and powerless as separate, unprotected markets and an object of plunder. A kind of clumsy seal that can be bitten from all sides.It is still unclear how the American administration sees the zone of influence in Europe: will it be plundered together from both sides, will Western Europe be a zone of exclusive American interests, and Eastern Europe - Russia's (as was the case during the Cold War), what will happen with the encroachments of China (which is already gradually buying up Europe piece by piece), etc. But the main thing is that they need to collapse the European Union, to divide everyone, and to do this they openly support Eurosceptics from the far right (and Russia also from the far left) end of the political spectrum. If strong individual leaders appear on the ruins of Europe, the United States will cooperate with them. So far, they do not see such leaders in France, Germany, or Britain.
3. What does the new American policy mean for Russia?
America sees China as its greatest adversary. And here we have what I call the greatest geopolitical mistake of the 21st century: the belief of Americans in the possibility of tearing Russia away from China and turning it in the opposite direction – against China. In our opinion, this is impossible to do. But, as we know, each American administration at the beginning sought to “reset” relations with Russia, mistakenly considering it part of Western civilization. None of these “resets” ended well, but that was later.In such a situation, the main fear of the American administration is the collapse of the Russian regime. This must not be allowed at all costs. Two years ago, I wrote that the fear of Russia’s defeat so much outweighs the fear of Ukraine’s defeat (without which the world lived perfectly well for hundreds of years) that there may come a time when, instead of supporting Ukraine against Russia, America will start supporting Russia against Ukraine. It's unpleasant, but this day has come.
In the first month of his term, Trump has brought Russia out of international isolation, and instead of an aggressor and international terrorist, he has presented it as a powerful country that has the right to its place at the table of great powers. Sanctions may soon be lifted.
Imagine that in World War II, the US president, instead of helping Britain and Europe fight the Nazi Reich, instead of Lend-Lease for the USSR, would send negotiators to meet with Hitler's representatives, call Adolf his best friend, prepare a personal meeting and explain to everyone that Czechoslovakia, Poland, France are to blame for the war, and we will somehow come to an agreement with our friend Adolf.
4. What does the new American policy mean for Ukraine?
First, there will be no more support for Ukraine. Back in the fall, Ukrainian analysts explained that there would be no support from the United States regardless of the results of the presidential elections.Sometimes it seems to us that someone in the American administration hates Ukraine, and someone loves it. This is a childish approach: a child thinks that they are in the spotlight, and everyone around them treats them in a certain way, good or bad. An adult knows that the world is mostly indifferent to you. The world is not Ukraine-centric. In their understanding, Ukraine is neither good nor bad - it is simply irrelevant, that is, it has nothing to do with the matter.
Ukraine prevents today's America from doing two things. First, to weaken Europe so that it is defenceless. Second, to strengthen Russia so that it can be used against China. So Ukraine must be punished - nothing personal, just business.
A popular metaphor among the new American administration compares the current war to the American Civil War. Ukraine looks like a rebellious southern province. The good northerners will eventually defeat the bad southerners and restore order. Foreign powers (the USA, and Europe) should not get involved in someone else's civil war.
5. What should Ukraine do in this situation?
First, stop thinking that we can somehow “sell” ourselves to the new American administration. For them, we are an annoying obstacle in the implementation of their plans. We have nothing to offer them.How can America put pressure on Ukraine? It is unlikely to be by stopping aid because aid will stop in any case. Certain aspects of this stoppage will be painful for us, very painful, much more than the dismantling of USAID. But I see no way to keep this aid.
Secondly, it is time to understand that our main ally is Europe. I wrote about this a few months ago. Europe will not survive without Ukraine. Ukraine will not survive without Europe. We are in the same boat, we will either swim out together or sink together. It would be nice if Europe understood this as quickly as we do.
Europe needs Ukraine as a shield. We have the largest army on the continent. We are the only ones with an army that knows how to contain Russia. We are the only ones with an army that knows how to wage modern, high-tech warfare.
Ukraine needs Europe as a rear. As a source of financial aid, weapons, technology, investment, political and moral support. We are doomed to be together.
Will Europe wake up quickly? Ukraine paid with the blood of its best sons and daughters for three years of European awakening that were wasted. We helped Europe buy time to prepare, but they did not use it. Only now, under the influence of the obvious destruction of alliances and promises, is the awakening beginning. We told Europe that we were protecting it, but they did not believe it until the new reality made it obvious.
Will Europe finally consolidate or become paralyzed? Different analysts assess the probabilities of these two scenarios differently. We do not know how the elections in Germany will end and how stable the new government coalition will be. France also has domestic political problems with a potential turn to the far right end of the political spectrum in the next elections. But at least the UK, the Nordic-Baltic Eight, the Netherlands, Poland and the Czech Republic will be with us. I will say something special about Poland: despite everything, without each other, we would not survive in the world we have now.
It is possible that as a result of American and Russian attacks on European unity, the European Union will cease to exist. Sometimes it will seem that Russia has outdone everyone. But at the same time, such a potential defeat could provide an impetus for the formation of a new union - a security one, not an economic one. In this union, Ukraine will play an important role, because without us it is impossible. It is possible that Intermarium (Intermaria) will turn from an unrealistic political project into a reality.
By the way, we need to accelerate European integration as much as possible, despite the fact that we may find ourselves in a situation where the EU will already cease to exist. The further we move along this path, the more significant our role will be and the better the conditions in the new union will be.
Thirdly, it is worth looking for allies outside the US and the European Union, and here it is worth mentioning Turkey first of all. Those who look at the world with a childish eye count as our enemies everyone who did not sign our documents did not speak out clearly enough, and once did something in their favour that we did not like. But this way you can end up in a world where everyone around you is considered an enemy. The world does not revolve around Ukraine, each country cares first of all about itself. And we need to care first of all about ourselves and look for allies in this matter.
6. Since Russia cannot overthrow Ukraine by military means, it will do it politically.
The idea of elections during wartime, that is, before the signing of a peace agreement with security guarantees, will be destructive for Ukraine (even the signing of such an agreement is not yet peace, it comes only with the beginning of its actual implementation).
The USA and Russia are now uniting in promoting this idea “first elections, then peace” – this is the best way to overthrow Ukraine quickly and inexpensively.
I have written about the elections dozens of times and will write more. I will note that the loss of Ukrainian statehood, which will come after this, does not guarantee Ukrainians' survival (the experience of the 20th century, Bucha, Mariupol and other temporarily occupied territories will help to understand this). Russia will mobilize everyone without delays and reservations and will throw them into the next wave of imperial expansion – into defenceless Europe. And there will be nowhere to hide - you can run to Poland, but the war will come there for you.
By the way, it is no secret that Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize. He is sure that a ceasefire is enough for this. We know that this is not so. But even if a peace agreement is concluded, the Nobel Prize is awarded, and the peace agreement is then violated, for Trump it will only mean one thing - that we ourselves are to blame, and he is the greatest peacemaker of our time. He brought us peace, and we rejected it.
7. What should Ukraine do?
First, understand that we have a crisis that threatens the loss of statehood and the lives of many of us. Political elites must immediately stop political squabbles and persecutions, bad decisions and cabinet management, as well as preparations for elections (which will not happen if we do not survive). A hundred years ago, such squabbles led to a catastrophe. Political elites must come out to the people together with a call for unity and solidarity in the face of the threat of losing everything.
They say that Ukrainians usually unite only 5 minutes before being shot, so we have the last chance to change this false tradition.
Second, take a subjective position. Ukraine will not agree to any conditions that do not ensure the survival of the country and its citizens. We are not obliged to be a victim. Do not be offended or react to verbal attacks, but express your interests and your position coldly and in an adult way.
Improving management in the Armed Forces and in the rear, in the economy, military-industrial complex, energy and other areas is becoming a matter of survival.
There is no immediate catastrophe yet. We have resources for this year and we must use this time as effectively as possible to awaken and gather allies to secure resources for the next and subsequent years. The main efforts should be focused on Europe.
What should each and every one of us do?
-- Realize the scale of the problem and the impossibility of hiding from it. Either you are in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Join the victory either by service or with your own money and volunteering.
-- Put your head in order and keep it cool, do not be led by Russian propaganda, do not spread it. If you cannot work for victory - at least do not work for defeat. The level of information attacks will increase many times shortly.
-- Help those who are having a harder time. Support each other. We are a networked society of free people, and that is the key to our resilience.
“I wish this hadn’t happened in my time,” Frodo said. “Neither do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live in such a time. But that’s not for them to decide. We can only decide what to do with the time we have.” #Ukraine #RussianUkrainianWar #Україна #News #Trump #Zelenskiy