For decades, OPEC’s power was built not only on barrels, but on the image of unity. The organisation has always had internal disagreements: between price hawks and volume maximisers, between Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers, between sanctioned and non-sanctioned states, and between political rivals inside the same cartel. Yet OPEC’s public message was usually the same: discipline, coordination and market stability. The UAE’s exit breaks that image.
Why the UAE Matters
The UAE also ranks among the world’s top oil producers. Recent estimates place its total oil output at around 4.5 million barrels per day in 2024, while Reuters and AP note that the UAE has been pursuing a production capacity target of about 5 million barrels per day. (Worldometer)
This is why the withdrawal is serious. OPEC is not losing a symbolic member; it is losing a producer with reserves, capacity, infrastructure, capital and geopolitical weight.
OPEC and OPEC+: The System the UAE Is Leaving
OPEC was founded in 1960 at the Baghdad Conference by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela as a permanent intergovernmental organisation of oil-exporting countries. Its stated purpose has been to coordinate petroleum policies and support stability in oil markets. (opec.org)
OPEC+ is the expanded format created around OPEC and allied non-OPEC producers, especially Russia. Reuters describes OPEC+ as an alliance formed in 2016 to coordinate production and influence global oil prices. Non-OPEC participants have included Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan, Sudan and, more recently, Brazil. (Reuters)
The numbers explain the importance of this structure. Reuters reports that OPEC+ produced nearly 50% of the world’s oil in 2025 and accounted for about 47% of global seaborne crude exports in 2025, although that export share reportedly fell to 34.7% by March 2026 amid disruptions and market shifts. (Reuters)
In other words, OPEC+ has been one of the few mechanisms capable of influencing global oil supply at scale. The UAE’s departure weakens that mechanism.
Why Did the UAE Leave?
Officially, the UAE framed its decision as a matter of national energy strategy and long-term economic vision. Reuters reported that UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei described the withdrawal as a policy decision aligned with the country’s future energy strategy and not coordinated with other nations. (Reuters)
Behind that formal explanation are several deeper pressures.
First, the UAE has long wanted more flexibility to produce and monetise its oil resources. OPEC quotas limited how much it could produce, even as Abu Dhabi invested heavily in expanding capacity. AP reported that frustration with restrictive quotas was one of the key drivers behind the decision. (AP News)
Second, the Gulf is facing a dangerous security environment. Multiple reports link the timing of the decision to the current Iran-related conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. Reuters and The Washington Post both reported that the exit comes amid a global energy shock connected to the Iran war and disruption in Hormuz. (Reuters)
Third, the UAE’s relationship with Saudi Arabia has become more complex. Saudi Arabia is still OPEC’s de facto leader, but the UAE has increasingly pursued its own strategic path: expanding production capacity, diversifying trade, strengthening relations with key consumers and positioning itself as an independent energy and logistics hub. AP and Reuters both describe the UAE’s departure as a blow to OPEC and a sign of deeper divergence inside the Gulf energy order. (AP News)
The Trump Factor
The UAE’s exit is also politically significant for the United States. Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised OPEC for keeping oil prices high. In his 2018 address to the UN General Assembly, Trump accused OPEC of “ripping off the rest of the world” and argued that countries protected by the United States were taking advantage of that protection through high oil prices. (Forbes)
That is why some analysts describe the UAE withdrawal as a political victory for Trump. If one of the most important Gulf producers leaves the quota system and increases production independently, it could weaken OPEC’s ability to restrict supply and support higher prices. Reuters also described the move as a potential win for Trump, given his long-running criticism of OPEC. (Reuters)
However, the result is not automatically lower oil prices. The market reaction depends on whether the UAE can actually increase exports, whether Hormuz remains disrupted, how Saudi Arabia responds, and whether other OPEC+ members preserve discipline.
Possible Consequences for Oil Prices
The UAE’s withdrawal can produce two opposite price scenarios.
Scenario 1: Oil prices rise
Prices may rise if the withdrawal creates uncertainty, reduces coordination among exporters and increases fears that OPEC+ is losing control over supply management. Markets dislike institutional instability. If traders believe OPEC+ is becoming weaker, less predictable and less able to manage crises, risk premiums may increase.
Prices may also rise if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Even if the UAE wants to increase production, physical export routes, shipping insurance, tanker availability and regional security all matter. In a crisis, production capacity is not the same as export capacity.
Scenario 2: Oil prices fall
Prices may fall if the UAE significantly increases output and manages to deliver more crude to global markets. Once it is outside OPEC quotas, the UAE can theoretically produce according to national interest rather than cartel discipline.
This is the nightmare scenario for OPEC: one major producer leaves, increases output, captures market share and pressures others to choose between defending prices and defending volumes.
If other members follow the UAE’s example, OPEC+ could move from coordinated production management to competitive production expansion. That would weaken price discipline and could eventually push prices down.
Why OPEC Becomes Weaker
OPEC’s strength depends on three things: reserves, production capacity and compliance. The UAE’s departure damages all three.
It reduces the volume of supply under OPEC discipline. It removes one of the group’s most capable producers. It also sends a political signal to other members: quotas are not permanent obligations if national interests change.
This matters because OPEC has already faced departures before. Qatar left OPEC in 2019, Ecuador left in 2020, and Angola announced its departure in 2023 after disputes over production quotas. Reuters notes that the UAE’s exit echoes these earlier departures and further challenges the organisation’s authority. (Reuters)
The key difference is scale. Qatar was more important in gas than in oil. Ecuador and Angola were significant, but not central to Gulf spare capacity. The UAE is different: it is a major Gulf producer, a long-time member and one of the few countries capable of meaningfully increasing output.
What This Means for Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia remains the most important actor in OPEC because it has the largest spare capacity, the deepest history of market intervention and the strongest political role inside the group. But the UAE’s move weakens Saudi leadership.
For years, Saudi Arabia tried to balance price stability, internal OPEC discipline and cooperation with Russia through OPEC+. The UAE’s exit complicates this strategy.
Saudi Arabia now faces several choices:
It can cut more production to defend prices.
It can tolerate lower prices and defend market share.
It can pressure remaining members to maintain discipline.
It can seek a new arrangement with the UAE outside formal OPEC structures.
It can allow OPEC+ to become a looser and less powerful coordination platform.
None of these options is easy.
What This Means for Russia
Russia’s role in OPEC+ is also affected. OPEC+ gave Moscow a seat at the global energy coordination table and helped Russia influence oil supply in cooperation with Gulf producers.
If OPEC+ becomes weaker, Russia loses part of that strategic platform. However, Russia may also benefit from higher prices if uncertainty pushes crude upward. The outcome depends on whether the market prices the UAE exit as a supply-expansion event or as a geopolitical-risk event.
This is especially important because Russia, Kazakhstan, Iraq and others have repeatedly been involved in discussions about compliance and compensation plans. OPEC’s own April 2026 communication referred to updated compensation plans from Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan and Oman, showing that compliance discipline was already a live issue before the UAE exit. (opec.org)
What This Means for Global Consumers
For importing countries, the UAE withdrawal is a double-edged sword.
In the short term, it may increase volatility and uncertainty. That can hurt consumers, airlines, shipping companies, petrochemical producers and emerging markets dependent on imported energy.
In the medium term, if the UAE raises production and exports more freely, global consumers may benefit from lower prices or at least from a larger supply cushion.
In the long term, the biggest effect may be structural: the oil market could become less cartel-managed and more competitive. That may weaken OPEC’s ability to engineer price floors, but it may also make the market more volatile because there would be fewer coordinated stabilisers.
OPEC Statistics After the UAE Exit
Before the UAE announcement, OPEC listed the United Arab Emirates among its member countries. After the withdrawal takes effect, the OPEC core is expected to shrink, with reports saying the remaining core will include 11 countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq. (opec.org)
The broader OPEC+ system remains much larger because it includes non-OPEC producers such as Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan, Sudan and Brazil. Reuters reports that OPEC+ produced nearly half of global oil in 2025, which shows why even a partial weakening of the system matters for global energy security. (Internazionale)
The UAE’s own weight is also substantial: it holds roughly 6–7% of global proven crude reserves and has been producing several million barrels per day, with strategic ambitions to reach 5 million barrels per day of production capacity. (eia.gov)
A Blow to the Old Oil Order
The UAE’s departure should not be interpreted only as a dispute over quotas. It is part of a broader transformation of the global energy system.
Oil producers are preparing for a world in which demand may remain high in the medium term but become more uncertain in the long term. Countries with low-cost reserves want to monetise them while they still can. At the same time, energy transition, electric vehicles, geopolitical fragmentation and new trade routes are changing the strategic logic of oil production.
The UAE’s message is clear: it wants flexibility. It wants to control its own production strategy. It does not want to leave national energy policy entirely inside a quota-based cartel system.
That is why this moment is dangerous for OPEC. If one disciplined, wealthy, strategically important Gulf member can leave, others may ask whether membership still serves their national interests.
The UAE Exit Is Not the End of OPEC, but It May Be the End of OPEC as We Knew It
The UAE’s withdrawal does not mean OPEC disappears tomorrow. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and other producers still matter. OPEC+ still controls a large share of global oil supply. The world still needs coordinated energy diplomacy, especially during crises.
But the UAE exit changes the psychology of the market.
It shows that OPEC unity is no longer untouchable.
It shows that quota discipline has political limits.
It shows that Gulf producers may increasingly prioritise national strategy over collective cartel management.
It shows that the oil market is entering a more fragmented, competitive and geopolitically unstable phase.
For consumers, this may eventually bring more supply and lower prices. For exporters, it may trigger a battle for market share. For OPEC, it is a strategic warning. For the UAE, it is a declaration of energy sovereignty.
The old oil order was built on coordination. The new one may be built on competition. #100NewsTV