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Subtitle:
How a war launched by Russia with the ambition of a lightning victory reached the point where Ukraine, by official decree, excluded Red Square from the plan for the use of its weapons during Moscow’s parade.
In February 2022, the world was discussing how many hours Kyiv would hold out. In May 2026, the world is discussing a very different question: why the President of Ukraine has signed an official decree “permitting” a parade in Moscow and, for the duration of that parade, excluding the territorial square of Red Square from the plan for the use of Ukrainian weapons.
This is not merely a legal formality. It is political theatre, a diplomatic signal, a military demonstration of capability and historical irony at the same time.
Four years ago, Russian propaganda and some external observers proceeded from the logic of Ukraine’s rapid collapse. Today, the official website of the President of Ukraine publishes Decree No. 374/2026, “On the holding of a parade in the city of Moscow”, which states: “To allow a parade to be held in the city of Moscow on 9 May 2026.” For the duration of the parade — from 10:00 a.m. Kyiv time on 9 May 2026 — the territorial square of Red Square is excluded from the plan for the use of Ukrainian weapons. The document even specifies the exact coordinates of that square. Source: President of Ukraine
This decree effectively consolidates a new subjectivity — the ability of a state or political actor to act as an independent participant in international relations, possessing its own will and the right to make independent decisions. More about this concept can be found at Wikipedia.
I. What exactly the President of Ukraine signed
On 8 May 2026, the official website of the President of Ukraine published Decree No. 374/2026, “On the holding of a parade in the city of Moscow”. Referring to “numerous requests” and to the humanitarian purpose outlined in negotiations with the American side on 8 May 2026, the President of Ukraine resolved to permit the holding of a parade in Moscow on 9 May 2026. It is separately stated that, for the duration of the parade, the territorial square of Red Square is excluded from the plan for the use of Ukrainian weapons, followed by the coordinates of the relevant area. Source: President of Ukraine
Formally, this looks like an act of humanitarian restraint. Politically, it is a demonstration of how profoundly the architecture of the war has changed. A state that, in 2022, was supposed in the Kremlin’s plan to lose its capital and its political subjectivity quickly, is in 2026 publicly stating that, for the duration of a parade in Moscow, one specific square of the Russian capital is being temporarily excluded from Ukrainian military planning. In this context, it is worth recalling the latest news from Ukraine, which highlights the country's growing defense potential.
II. Why this decree became a media event
In the global media space, the decree was immediately perceived as an event of dual nature. On the one hand, it is connected with the humanitarian and diplomatic logic of temporary de-escalation. Reuters reported a three-day US-mediated ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from 9 to 11 May 2026, including an exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war from each side. Reuters also noted that Zelenskyy had issued a tongue-in-cheek decree “allowing” Russia’s May 9 military parade to proceed and saying Ukrainian weapons would not target Red Square. Source: Reuters
This gesture can be viewed as an element of public diplomacy — a set of measures aimed at studying, informing, and shaping public opinion in other countries to promote national interests. The methods of this influence are detailed by the U.S. Department of State.
III. From “Kyiv in three days” to the coordinates of Red Square
To understand the scale of this transformation, one must return to the beginning of the full-scale invasion. In February 2022, forecasts were circulating about the possible rapid fall of Kyiv. According to reports, General Mark Milley warned American lawmakers that, in the event of a full-scale Russian invasion, Kyiv could fall within 72 hours. Source: Fox News
But reality followed a different path. Kyiv did not fall. The Ukrainian army, the state, civil society, volunteers, territorial defence, international support and the personal resilience of citizens destroyed the original scenario. By early April 2022, Reuters reported that, according to the United States, Russian forces had completed their withdrawal from the area around Kyiv and were preparing to redeploy to other fronts. Source: Reuters
IV. Four years of war as four stages of strategic failure
The first stage was the failure of the lightning war. Russia entered Ukraine with a claim to speed, fear and paralysis. Instead, it encountered resistance, international mobilisation and the collapse of its myth of invincibility. More about the chronicle of military actions can be found in our special section.
The second stage was the transition to a war of destruction. After the failure near Kyiv, Russia shifted its focus to the east, the south, artillery pressure, strikes on cities, energy facilities and infrastructure. It was an attempt to replace political blitzkrieg with a war of exhaustion.
V. Technology and Symbolic Shifts
The third stage was Ukraine’s technological adaptation. Ukraine began to transform from a victim of invasion into a laboratory of new warfare. Drones, long-range strikes, digital intelligence, flexible tactics, and attacks on logistics gradually changed the balance of perception. In May 2026, The Guardian wrote about the role of Ukrainian unmanned forces and their strikes on Russian critical infrastructure. Source: The Guardian
The fourth stage is the war of symbols and the vulnerability of the centre. This is where Decree No. 374/2026 appears. It shows that Russia can no longer hold even its principal military-historical ritual without taking the Ukrainian factor into account.
VI. The parade as a mirror of Russian vulnerability
The 9 May parade has always been more than a military procession for Russia. It is a ritual of legitimising power. For the Kremlin, 9 May is not only history. It is the language of power. Reuters reported that the 2026 parade was significantly more restrained than in previous years due to the threat of attack from Ukraine. Source: Reuters
VII. Why Russia ended up at this point
The Kremlin’s main mistake was not only an incorrect military assessment of Ukraine. The deeper error was civilisational: Russia failed to understand that Ukraine was no longer an object of imperial administration. This led to a situation requiring a deep geopolitical analysis of the current changes.
Ukraine did not collapse. The Russian army lost its aura of professional invulnerability. And the Soviet myth of victory was morally undermined by the very war against Ukraine — a country whose people were also part of the victory over Nazism.
VIII. Final conclusion
Decree No. 374/2026 of the President of Ukraine is a document that will enter history not only because of its formal content, but because of its symbolic force. It shows that the war has changed not only Ukraine. It has changed the geometry of fear itself. In 2022, fear was supposed to travel from Moscow to Kyiv. In 2026, Moscow is forced to take Kyiv into account even when organising a parade on Red Square.
Author:
Andrii Azarov (Andrew Azarov) — Professor of Business, Economics, and the Applied Use of Artificial Intelligence in the Development of Business Process Automation Software Systems. International Business Academy Consortium, United Kingdom.