With approximately 84.5% of ballot boxes counted, Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc was projected to receive 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The opposition grouping led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot stood at 49 seats, while Arab-led parties were projected to win 17. These figures remain provisional, but neither principal bloc is close to the 61 seats required to form a majority government.
Likud remained the largest individual party, winning about one-fifth of the vote. Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party placed second. Overall turnout reached 77.7%, the highest level in Israel for more than two decades, reflecting the importance voters attached to an election shaped by the failures surrounding 7 October, the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, and the continuing argument over Netanyahu’s responsibility for Israel’s security crisis.
A Setback for Netanyahu—But Not His Defeat
The result represents a substantial loss for Netanyahu’s governing alliance, which previously controlled 68 seats. Yet the prime minister remains far from politically defeated. Likud is still ahead of every other party, and Netanyahu will continue as caretaker prime minister while the final votes are counted and negotiations begin.
A prolonged deadlock could work in his favour. Netanyahu has survived repeated political crises and has spent nearly 19 of the past 30 years as prime minister. Unless his opponents can assemble an alternative majority, he can remain in office throughout the coalition-building process.
Netanyahu has called for a right-wing national government and has ruled out relying on Arab parties. He has also presented his military record as the central argument for keeping him in power, pointing to Israeli operations against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. His opponents counter that the continued presence of Hamas in Gaza and the intelligence failures preceding the 2023 attack demonstrate the shortcomings of his leadership.
Arab Parties Could Decide the Outcome
The strong performance of Arab-led parties has changed the parliamentary arithmetic. Their projected 17 seats could give Eisenkot and his allies enough votes to remove Netanyahu—if they are prepared to cooperate.
That remains politically difficult. Eisenkot has left limited room for an agreement under strict conditions, while several of his potential coalition partners oppose depending on Arab parties. Netanyahu has rejected the idea entirely and accused his opponents of risking Israel’s security by considering such an arrangement.
Israel’s Arab citizens make up roughly one-fifth of the population. Their higher participation in this election may give their representatives greater influence than they have held in previous parliaments. Whether that influence translates into formal government participation, external support for a minority administration or continued opposition will become one of the main questions of the coalition negotiations.
What Happens Next?
After the final results are confirmed, President Isaac Herzog will consult the parliamentary parties and ask the politician considered most likely to form a government to do so. The chosen candidate normally receives 28 days to negotiate a coalition, with the possibility of a 14-day extension. If that attempt fails, another candidate may be given the opportunity. A continued deadlock could eventually force Israel to hold another election.
Several outcomes remain possible: a renewed Netanyahu-led coalition, an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties, or a national unity arrangement bringing together elements of the two main blocs. Every option would demand compromises that party leaders resisted during the campaign.
The composition of Israel’s next government will have consequences far beyond domestic politics. It will shape decisions on the war in Gaza, relations with the Palestinians, the possibility of further military action against Iran and cooperation with the United States. It will also determine whether Israel attempts to repair its damaged international relationships or continues the security policy pursued under Netanyahu.
Israeli voters have weakened the governing coalition without clearly transferring power to its opponents. The election has therefore settled one question while opening another: Netanyahu no longer commands a reliable parliamentary majority, but the opposition has yet to prove that it can replace him.
The ballots have been cast, but the real contest for control of Israel has only begun.