100% NEWS: Shifting Sands: How Politics, Protectionism, and War Are Redrawing the Global Economic Map

Introduction: The Global Economy at a Crossroads

As of April 2025, the world finds itself navigating through a convergence of crises: resurgent protectionism, geopolitical turmoil, and the erosion of multilateral economic cooperation. The very foundations of the global economy, shaped over decades through trade liberalisation and interdependence, are under threat. Once-trusted norms are giving way to new paradigms in which power, not principle, increasingly dictates direction.

From Beijing to Brussels, from Wall Street to the Persian Gulf, decisions made in political capitals are sending shockwaves through financial centres and industrial corridors. The result is not merely economic uncertainty — it is a realignment of influence, capital, and opportunity.

This article explores how political interventions — particularly the renewed wave of protectionism under U.S. President Donald Trump — and regional conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and East Asia are reshaping global financial architecture. As a professor at the International Business Academy Consortium (UK), I offer this analysis not only as an academic but as a concerned global citizen.

Part I: The Cost of Political Interference in Market Systems

Markets thrive on stability, predictability, and mutual trust. Yet in the last decade, and particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic, we have witnessed an increasing tendency for governments to override economic rationality in favour of short-term political gain.

The Trump administration's return in 2024 saw the reintroduction of punitive tariffs, mass withdrawal from international agreements, and an aggressive rhetoric aimed at "rebalancing" trade. In April 2025, sweeping new tariffs came into force:

10% on all imports,
54% on Chinese goods,
20% on EU products,
24% on Japanese goods.

While marketed as protection for American workers and industries, the reality was different. The immediate consequences included:

Retaliatory tariffs from China and the EU;
Surge in consumer prices in the US;
Supply chain disruptions across sectors from semiconductors to agriculture;
Decline in business confidence and inward investment.

These measures have shaken the bedrock of international trade. The World Trade Organization, long weakened by unilateral actions, now struggles to mediate disputes. Multinational corporations are rethinking manufacturing strategies, diversifying operations away from predictable hubs like the U.S.

Part II: Financial Power Shift — The Rise of Asian Giants

The fallout from Western protectionism has allowed Asian financial institutions — particularly those in China — to seize the initiative. As of April 4, 2025, data from CompaniesMarketCap shows:

7 of the top 10 public companies by total assets are Chinese banks.
ICBC leads globally with over $6.1 trillion in assets.
Other top players include China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China.

The U.S., despite its technological and financial prowess, has lost ground. JPMorgan Chase ranks 11th, Bank of America 15th. European institutions fare no better: Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, and HSBC are no longer among the top tier.

Why? Because while the West battles ideological wars and imposes sanctions on itself in the name of security, Asia — albeit with its own challenges — continues building capital strength, digitising banking systems, and securing natural resource supply chains.

Moreover, China's dual circulation policy — focusing on domestic consumption while maintaining export power — shields it from the worst of global turbulence.

Part III: War as a Catalyst for Economic Fragmentation

Economies do not operate in a vacuum. Geopolitical conflict is a potent force multiplier in economic crises.

Russia’s War Against Ukraine:

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has dragged on into its third year. Sanctions on Russia have reshaped global energy flows, forcing Europe to wean off Russian gas and pivot to more expensive LNG from the U.S. and Qatar. Meanwhile, the war has devastated Ukrainian infrastructure, slashed grain exports, and driven global food prices upward.

Financially, global investors now demand geopolitical risk premiums. Insurance costs for ships in the Black Sea have skyrocketed. Emerging markets with even minor exposure to the conflict see downgraded credit ratings.

Israel–Iran Confrontation:

The April 2025 exchange of missile strikes between Israel and Iran, following months of proxy conflict escalation, stunned markets. Brent crude briefly soared past $120/barrel. Flight paths across the Middle East were rerouted. Regional economies from Lebanon to UAE absorbed shocks.

Taiwan Under Pressure:

China’s assertive military posture toward Taiwan continues. Naval exercises, airspace violations, and cyberattacks keep investors on edge. Given Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductor manufacturing, even minor conflict threats trigger supply shocks in global tech. Western sanctions against China in such a scenario would be catastrophic — for both sides.

Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen:

Though less reported, Yemen’s ongoing civil war has regional implications. The humanitarian cost is staggering, but there’s also economic spillover: shipping disruptions through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, growing influence of Iranian-backed groups, and potential flashpoints with Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Part IV: Consequences for the West — A Loss of Credibility?

The combined effects of protectionism and global conflict have dented the credibility of Western economic leadership. Once regarded as a bastion of free trade and rules-based order, the U.S. is now seen by many allies as increasingly transactional and unreliable.

The EU, while more consistent, remains divided internally — between north and south, east and west — over how to respond to external threats and internal economic stagnation. Britain, post-Brexit, continues to search for a viable global identity.

In the vacuum left by Western indecision, regional coalitions are emerging:

ASEAN+3 expanding financial integration;
BRICS exploring common currencies and digital assets;
Africa pivoting towards South-South cooperation.

Part V: The Future of Globalisation — Is It Over?

Not quite. But we are certainly in the post-peak phase of hyper-globalisation.

Globalisation is not dead — it is being redefined. From a pursuit of efficiency to a pursuit of resilience. From lowest-cost sourcing to secure and politically-aligned supply chains.

Future trade deals will be more regional, values-based, and defensive. Investments will favour stable regimes over tax havens. And education systems must prepare students not just for global competition, but for cross-cultural collaboration in a divided world.

Conclusion: A Call for Strategic Patience and Global Cooperation

We stand at a turning point. Economic policies based on isolationism and coercion will only deepen fragmentation. Instead, we must reimagine global governance: