Geo-Economics Instead of Geopolitics

President Donald Trump is redefining the very nature of U.S. foreign policy in his second term. His administration is shifting from traditional priorities such as national security, human rights, and alliances towards a pragmatic approach driven by economic interests. The core idea: if a deal is profitable, it’s worth pursuing — regardless of the partner’s political system.

This approach was clearly reflected during Trump’s recent tour of the Middle East, which resulted in agreements worth over $2 trillion. These were not merely diplomatic visits — they were part of a large-scale commercial expansion designed to bolster U.S. global influence through business ties.

Deals Over Doctrine: Examples of the New Diplomacy

- Saudi Arabia: Over $600 billion in deals, including $142 billion in military procurement.
- Qatar: Agreements worth $243 billion, featuring a $96 billion Boeing order.
- UAE: $14.5 billion allocated to aviation and artificial intelligence development.

Most striking was the decision to lift all sanctions on Syria in exchange for regional investment guarantees. For the first time, the U.S. has officially 'unfroze' a conflict zone for the sake of economic opportunity.

Who Was in the Delegation: From Diplomats to Tycoons

The presidential delegation included both official representatives and leaders of major U.S. corporations:

Steven Witkoff – Special Envoy to the Middle East
Morgan Ortagus – Deputy Envoy
Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX)
Sam Altman (OpenAI)
Sundar Pichai (Google)
Andy Jassy (Amazon)
Satya Nadella (Microsoft)
Jensen Huang (Nvidia)
Marc Benioff (Salesforce)
Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber)
Larry Fink (BlackRock)
Steve Schwarzman (Blackstone)
Bob Iger (Disney)

Their participation underscores the centrality of private enterprise and high technology in U.S. foreign relations.

Main Economic Cooperation Areas

Defense Sector – massive military contracts with Saudi Arabia.
Innovation and AI – deals to supply 18,000 Nvidia GPUs and build regional data centers.
Entertainment and Culture – Disney to open a theme park in Abu Dhabi.
E-commerce and Logistics – potential expansion of Amazon and Uber in the Middle East.
Finance – new investment funds from BlackRock and Blackstone with Gulf partners.

Stock Market Outlook

The scope of these deals inevitably impacts the market value of involved companies. Here’s the expected stock performance:

The Nvidia deal reinforces its dominance in AI infrastructure, while Disney gains new revenue channels in emerging entertainment markets.

Risks and Strategic Concerns

Despite clear economic benefits, this approach involves significant strategic and political risks:
- Reliance on Authoritarian Regimes: Ties with nations like Saudi Arabia and Syria may damage U.S. democratic image.
- Alienation of Allies: India, Japan, and Israel may feel sidelined by deals with their regional rivals.
- Over-Commercialization: Business figures lack the crisis-handling skills of career diplomats.

Global Consequences: A New Model of Influence?

Trump’s diplomacy reflects a transition from ideological influence to economic leverage:
- Investments become America’s new soft power.
- Corporations act as foreign policy agents.
- The success of this model depends on its ability to ensure stability alongside profit.

Conclusion

Trump’s commercial diplomacy may not be a temporary deviation, but the start of a new era. Presidential trips now resemble investment roadshows, and ambassadors are often replaced by CEOs.

The U.S. is repositioning itself not as an ideological leader, but as a global economic integrator. The coming year will reveal whether this model becomes a lasting doctrine or remains a bold experiment.