Commercial Diplomacy: Trump's Art of the Deal Just Transformed Middle East Politics

Искусство Трампа заключать сделки просто преобразило политику Ближнего Востока. Его 2-триллионная сделка раскрыла три коммерческие стратегии, которые СМИ полностью упустили из виду. Его шаг в Пакистане оставил дипломатов без слов. Пока СМИ фокусировались на личностях, они упустили из виду фундаментальный сдвиг в мировой политике.

 
Трамп применяет «коммерческую дипломатию», используя деловые сделки в качестве краеугольных камней внешней политики.
Результаты? Дипломатическое землетрясение.

Стратегия №1: Заключение сделок вместо догм.

The Political Pulse: How Policy Shapes Equity Markets, FX Rates and Citizens’ Well-being in Europe, the UK and the USA

Political decisions—fiscal stimulus, regulatory reform, election outcomes and central-bank mandates—profoundly influence asset prices and, ultimately, citizens’ living standards. This analysis explores how recent political currents in Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States have moved stock markets, currency exchange rates and household welfare.

1. Fiscal Policy and Equity Markets

1.1 Europe

• Fiscal Stimulus vs Austerity: Countries that relaxed austerity to fund infrastructure and green-transition projects (e.g. Germany’s €60 billion climate package) have seen domestic equities in renewables and construction outperform. Conversely, Southern-European states maintaining tight budgets experienced more muted gains.
• EU Recovery Funds: Disbursement of Next Generation EU grants has driven rallies in the Stoxx 600, particularly in Spain and Italy, where SMEs and manufacturers are the main beneficiaries.

1.2 United Kingdom

• Tax Cuts and Public Spending: Announcements on corporation-tax reductions and R&D credits have buoyed FTSE 100 sectors such as pharmaceuticals and financial services, while uncertainty over public-sector pay deals has weighed on domestically focused mid-caps.
• Post-Brexit Trade Policy: New trade agreements (e.g. with Australia) have underpinned export-oriented stocks, whereas unresolved Northern Ireland Protocol issues have clouded sentiment in logistics and agribusiness.

1.3 United States

• Infrastructure and Tech Regulation: The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law injected capital into construction and materials names, lifting relevant S&P 500 subsectors. Meanwhile, Congressional scrutiny of Big Tech has capped valuations of certain mega-caps.
• Debt-Ceiling Showdowns: Repeated brinkmanship has triggered brief sell-offs whenever Treasury-bill downgrades or funding impasses loomed, underscoring equities’ sensitivity to fiscal credibility.

2. Monetary–Political Interplay in Currency Markets

Triple-Curve Analysis: Sterling’s Performance against the Dollar and Euro

Recent market dynamics have seen the British pound navigating choppy waters against both the US dollar and the euro. Over the past month, GBP/USD has oscillated between 1.31 and 1.34, while GBP/EUR climbed from below €1.15 to a one-month high of €1.1876. This in-depth analysis examines the common and divergent drivers behind these moves, technical signals across both pairs, and implications for investors and businesses.

1. Macroeconomic Drivers: Commonalities and Contrasts

Driver	Impact on GBP/USD	Impact on GBP/EUR
Interest-Rate Differentials	US Treasuries’ rising yields have bolstered the dollar, with Fed tightening expectations supporting USD strength.	The eurozone’s lower bond yields and slower ECB tightening have weakened the euro, enhancing sterling’s relative appeal.
Labour-Market Data	Strong US employment figures in early May led to a brief dollar rally, pulling GBP/USD down to 1.3174.	UK wage growth and low unemployment bolstered sterling versus the euro, as eurozone labour markets remain under pressure from energy costs.
Monetary-Policy Signals	Fed members’ hawkish comments underpinned the dollar; the BoE’s dovish hints capped sterling gains.	A more hawkish BoE stance compared to the ECB drove GBP/EUR above €1.17, culminating in the monthly peak.
Geopolitical and Energy Factors	Safe-haven demand for USD amid global tensions supported the dollar.	Euro suffered from the eurozone’s gas-price volatility; sterling benefited from the UK’s partial hedging of energy imports.

2. Divergent Sentiment and Correlation Dynamics

Pound versus Dollar: Between Growth Impulses and a Sudden Slide — A Deep Dive

Over the past month, the GBP/USD rate has fluctuated within a narrow band between 1.31 and 1.34, reflecting a host of conflicting influences: from monetary policy expectations in the US and UK to geopolitical tremors. Today, despite powerful bullish surges mid-period, sterling abruptly slipped to 1.3174. Let us examine what lies behind these movements and what lessons investors and businesses might learn.

1. Rate Movements: Key Milestones

• Consolidation Phase (12–16 April): Sterling traded around 1.31–1.32 as markets awaited US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s decision.
• First Bullish Impulse (17–20 April): A series of bullish sessions drove the rate to 1.33 after robust UK retail sales and softer-than-expected US inflation figures.
• Second, Sharper Rise (21–25 April): Sterling peaked near 1.342 following confident remarks from the Bank of England indicating further tightening of monetary policy.
• Moderate Pull-back and Range-Trading (26 April–8 May): Profits were taken on the rally as US Treasury yields rose; the rate stabilised between 1.33 and 1.335.
• Steep Decline (9–12 May): Ahead of the Fed meeting and on the back of strong US employment data, sterling fell to 1.3174, with the dollar supported by robust macro data and the prospect of further rate increases.

2. Principal Drivers and Risks

2.1 Interest-Rate Differentials

• Treasuries vs Gilts: Rising yields on US 10-year Treasuries have bolstered the dollar’s appeal; UK Gilts look less attractive in comparison.
• Fed versus BoE Expectations: While the Fed hints at another rate rise this year, debate in the UK increasingly centres on pausing tightening, narrowing the yield gap in sterling’s favour.

2.2 Macroeconomic Data

• Strong US Employment Figures: Growth in non-farm payrolls and a drop in unemployment have underpinned the dollar.
• UK PMIs and Retail Sales: Modest service-sector expansion alongside stagnating manufacturing output has left the outlook for the UK economy uncertain.

2.3 Geopolitics and Global Sentiment

• Eurozone Risks: Energy shortages and geopolitical tensions have kept demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset elevated.
• Risk-On vs Risk-Off: Periods of risk appetite (April) buoyed sterling, whereas recent jitters ahead of the Fed meeting have returned demand to the dollar.

3. Technical Outlook

• Support Zone 1.3150–1.3200: Previously tested in January–March and held the price today.
• Resistance Zone 1.3350–1.3400: Repeatedly capped rallies at the end of April.
• 50- and 200-Day Moving Averages: A potential ‘death cross’ suggests a continuation of the downward trend if the rate remains below 1.3200.

4. Impact on Business and Investment