In spring 2026, wars and sanctions have become part of the operating environment for business rather than background political noise. The war involving Iran has disrupted energy flows, freight and insurance, while the long aftershocks of the war in Ukraine continue to influence sanctions policy, trade patterns and industrial strategy across Europe. Reuters’ review of corporate disclosures found that since the Iran war began, 21 companies had withdrawn or cut forecasts, 32 had flagged price rises, and 31 had cited expected financial impacts. That is not a geopolitical side story. It is a direct business story.
The first and most immediate change is cost. Wars affect business first through energy, raw materials and transport. In Europe, the European Commission is preparing measures to soften what officials openly describe as a second energy crisis in four years, after gas prices rose sharply and fertiliser markets tightened because of the conflict around Hormuz. Reuters reported that urea prices had risen by 55% since the war began and that one-third of global fertiliser trade passes through the affected route. For manufacturers, agribusinesses and transport-heavy sectors, war is therefore showing up not as a headline, but as margin pressure.
