Will the Dollar Stay on Top? The Trump Factor and Its Global Impact

After Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, the US dollar has shown steady growth, reaching multi-year highs. This is driven by investors' expectations regarding the newly elected president's economic measures aimed at stimulating growth, increasing inflation, and reducing the likelihood of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Notably, the dollar index has risen by almost 10% from the lows of late September.

However, Trump's plans to introduce tariffs and significant tax cuts may have an ambiguous impact on the currency market. These measures could lead to higher inflation, which may force the Federal Reserve to refrain from further rate cuts or even raise them. This could strengthen the dollar further, complicating global trade, increasing costs for non-US companies, and influencing the monetary policies of other countries. Countries with large trade surpluses with the US, such as China, are likely to be particularly affected.

Moreover, there are contradictions in Trump's policy towards the dollar. On the one hand, he seeks to weaken the dollar to support exports and protect jobs; on the other, he wants to maintain its strength to uphold global financial dominance. These contradictions could lead to instability in currency markets and complicate the administration's economic goals.

Thus, while the dollar remains one of the world's most profitable currencies for now, the future policies of Trump's administration could significantly affect its position. Investors should closely monitor developments and adjust their strategies in line with the new economic realities.

Author Andrew Azarov

WEF in DAVOS 2025: TOP-5 most frequently asked questions.

Davos in Switzerland is the highest town in Europe. Yet ever since the World Economic Forum brought its Annual Meeting to the alpine venue, the name resonates with the flagship event.

The meeting brings together government, business and civil society leaders to set the year's agenda for how leaders can make the world a better place for all.

Its relevance as a global gathering sits within and beyond the official programme. The importance of dialogue — often happening in private conversations — reveals an ever-important mission to convene leaders when 'threats to world stability are multiplying'.

Established more than 50 years ago, the Annual Meeting tries to embody ‘the spirit of Davos’, which is an attitude of openness and cooperation that is core to the mission of the Forum. The 'Davos Manifesto', created in 1973 and renewed in 2020, lays out the principles of stakeholder capitalism — or a system of shared goals for businesses.

Here are seven things to know about Davos, past and present, answering some of your most frequently asked questions.

1. What's in the programme at Davos?

The Year in Review: Key Events and Takeaways from 2024

As 2024 comes to a close, the world reflects on a year defined by extraordinary challenges and transformative moments. From geopolitical tensions to technological breakthroughs and climate milestones, 2024 has left an indelible mark on history. Here’s a look back at the defining events and trends of the year.

Geopolitics: A World Divided

1. Russia-Ukraine War
   The Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to dominate global headlines, reshaping alliances and economic policies worldwide. The war, now in its third year, saw intensified military actions, massive humanitarian crises, and international efforts to mediate peace. However, the UN’s paralysis, due to Russia’s veto power, highlighted the limitations of global institutions in addressing such conflicts.

   Impact:

   • Western nations increased military aid to Ukraine while imposing tighter sanctions on Russia.
   • Energy markets were disrupted as Europe further reduced its reliance on Russian gas, accelerating investments in renewables.
   • Nations like China and India benefited economically by purchasing discounted Russian resources, drawing criticism for enabling the aggressor.

2. Middle East Tensions
   The Iran-Saudi détente, brokered in 2023, faced strains as regional conflicts persisted. Meanwhile, Israel-Palestine tensions reignited, with international mediators struggling to de-escalate violence.

3. U.S.-China Rivalry
   Geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China deepened, marked by disputes over Taiwan, trade policies, and technological supremacy. Both nations expanded their spheres of influence, creating a bipolar world order.

Economy: Inflation, Innovation, and Inequality

The Paralysis of the United Nations: A Crisis of Indecision in a Turbulent World

In a world beset by escalating conflicts, climate disasters, and humanitarian crises, the United Nations (UN)—an institution designed to safeguard global peace and security—finds itself increasingly ineffective. From its inability to resolve the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war to its slow response to climate emergencies, the UN’s indecision has raised questions about its relevance and functionality in the 21st century.

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The Russia-Ukraine War: A Test the UN is Failing

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, now in its third year, is perhaps the starkest example of the UN's inability to act decisively. Despite clear violations of international law, including Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories and targeting of civilians, the UN Security Council has remained largely paralysed due to Russia’s veto power as a permanent member.

Key issues include:

• Deadlocked Security Council: Any resolution condemning Russia or enforcing consequences has been blocked by Moscow, often with tacit support from China.
• Ineffectiveness of the General Assembly: While the Assembly has passed non-binding resolutions condemning Russian aggression, these lack enforcement mechanisms, reducing them to symbolic gestures.

“The UN’s very structure prevents it from taking meaningful action in conflicts where a permanent member is involved,” says political analyst Carla Ruiz.

The result? A growing sense of frustration among smaller nations and a widening credibility gap for the UN as an impartial arbiter of peace.

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Humanitarian Crises Ignored

Beyond conflicts, the UN has also faltered in addressing pressing humanitarian crises. Yemen, Sudan, and the Sahel region are just a few examples where delayed or insufficient UN intervention has exacerbated suffering:

1. Yemen: The world’s worst humanitarian crisis continues with minimal UN oversight. While the UN has facilitated peace talks, its ability to enforce agreements or ensure humanitarian aid is distributed remains weak.
2. Sudan: The outbreak of civil war in 2024 has displaced millions, with the UN unable to establish a ceasefire or secure humanitarian corridors.
3. The Sahel: As extremist groups destabilise the region, UN peacekeeping forces face logistical and funding challenges, leaving communities vulnerable.

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Climate Change: A Crisis of Complacency

While the UN has been vocal about the need for climate action, its efforts have fallen short of addressing the urgency of the crisis. The COP summits, organised under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), often conclude with watered-down agreements and vague commitments.

Global Forecast: The Russia-Ukraine War and the Hypocrisy of Global Alliances

As 2024 comes to a close, the Russia-Ukraine war remains the central geopolitical conflict, reshaping alliances, global energy flows, and the balance of power. The war, now in its third year, has revealed the strategic hypocrisy of nations that prioritize self-interest over international law, aligning themselves with Russia while fueling instability worldwide.

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Russia-Ukraine: A Conflict That Divides the World

The war has entered a critical phase, with Russia intensifying attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian areas, while Ukraine continues its counteroffensives in the east and south. Despite heavy international sanctions, Russia's economy remains resilient, primarily due to support from countries willing to bypass global norms for political and economic gain.

1. Iran and North Korea: These nations have emerged as Russia’s most committed enablers:

   • Iran supplies advanced drones and missile systems, which Russia uses to target Ukrainian cities. Iranian Shahed drones have been central to Moscow’s relentless attacks, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
   • North Korea has reportedly provided artillery shells and ammunition, defying UN sanctions and further isolating itself from the international community.

     “This is a dangerous precedent,” notes defense analyst Mark Phelps. “It emboldens rogue states to use war as leverage in global diplomacy.”

2. African Nations and Russian Influence: Some African countries, particularly those struggling with internal conflicts and economic instability, have publicly aligned with Russia to secure economic aid, military support, or diplomatic backing.

   • The Wagner Group, a Russian private military organization, has increased its presence in Africa, securing lucrative mining contracts in exchange for military protection, notably in Mali and the Central African Republic.
   • In return, these governments support Russia in global forums like the UN, refusing to condemn its aggression in Ukraine.

3. The Western Response:
   The U.S., EU, and NATO continue to provide military and financial support to Ukraine, yet divisions are becoming evident. Some EU nations, facing economic strain and war fatigue, are pushing for negotiated solutions, which Kyiv argues would reward Russian aggression.

   • Impact: The war has forced NATO to strengthen its eastern flank while encouraging Sweden and Finland to abandon decades of neutrality and join the alliance.

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Global Impact: Energy, Trade, and Security

1. Energy Markets:
   The war has disrupted global energy supplies, with Russia rerouting oil exports to countries like China and India at discounted rates. This has undermined Western sanctions and allowed Russia to maintain its war economy.

   • Meanwhile, European nations have scrambled to diversify energy sources, leading to increased investments in renewables but also temporary reliance on LNG imports from the U.S. and Qatar.

2. Food Crisis:
   Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian grain exports earlier in the year exacerbated food shortages across Africa and parts of the Middle East. Despite international mediation, ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports threaten global food security.

Georgia is fighting for the right to be Europe without ties to russia: December 16, 2024

Recent statements and events have put Georgia at risk of destabilization and chaos, which could have dire consequences for our country and every citizen, regardless of their political tastes or social status. Economic collapse, years of cessation of development, increased crime and a new wave of mass emigration – this is what threatens our country in the worst case.

Palitra Media believes that immediate steps must be taken to avoid a new wave of escalation.

We believe that one of the first steps towards de-escalation should be the release of innocent young people arrested during the protests that took place on Rustaveli Avenue in recent days since most of their protests were completely sincere.

We also believe that it is necessary to transparently investigate the facts of unjustified cruelty and the use of disproportionate force by law enforcement officers against citizens and punish the perpetrators.

All those who used physical violence against media representatives must be held accountable. It is doubtful that this massacre was deliberate since the beaten journalists are easily identified by their badges, video cameras, photo cameras or other paraphernalia. We would like to remind the relevant authorities that, according to the Criminal Code of Georgia and international conventions, obstructing journalistic activity is a criminal offense.

"Palitra Media" believes that such political decisions should be made quickly, which will return the country to its usual rhythm of life. There are precedents in international practice regarding painless exit from a serious political crisis, and Georgian legislation provides for such levers. The harsh scenario, first of all, will fall into the mill of the country, which occupies 20% of Georgia's territory and is waiting for the moment to begin a decisive attack on the sovereignty and independence of our country.

Of course, all political decisions and processes should serve one goal - the European integration of Georgia.

Georgia is Europe!

Source: https://www.interpressnews.ge/