GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE (Only for Leaders)

Friday, 25 July 2025

💳 Why Did the Pound Weaken Sharply Against the Euro in July 2025?

Published: 25 July 2025  |  By: International Desk, 100NEWS.TV

💱 Live rate via Wise.com: 1 GBP = 1.1442 EUR (as of 25 July 2025)
Net received after sending 100 GBP: 113.57 EUR (includes £0.74 fee)
Effective exchange rate incl. fees: 1.1357 EUR per GBP

1. Diverging Interest Rate Expectations

The Bank of England signalled potential rate cuts due to signs of economic slowdown, while the European Central Bank paused its cycle, favouring the Euro. Markets are pricing in up to two UK rate cuts by year-end, undermining Sterling's appeal.

2. Weak UK Economic Data

Recent GDP and retail sales figures disappointed markets. PMI reports showed softening private sector output and rising unemployment, all pointing to weakening domestic demand and low investor confidence in the UK outlook.

3. Fiscal Uncertainty and Stagflation Fears

Analysts warn that the UK may face stagflation—stagnant growth with persistent inflation. Concerns around potential tax increases and high public debt have also weakened Sterling sentiment.

4. Safe-Haven Preference for the Euro

While the UK outlook dims, the Euro has attracted capital inflows due to relatively stable economic performance and perceived resilience within the euro area, especially in light of geopolitical risk hedging.

5. Market Sentiment and Technical Levels

Currency strategists cited downward technical momentum. Institutions like BNP Paribas targeted 1.1430 as a near-term floor for GBP/EUR, which aligns with current trading levels.

📈 Summary Table

  • Start of period: 1 GBP ≈ 1.17 EUR
  • End of period: 1 GBP ≈ 1.1442 EUR
  • Key driver: BoE rate expectations
  • Other factors: weak GDP, low retail sales, Euro stability

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, The Guardian, ECB, Bank of England, MarketPulse, CurrencyNews UK
Chart powered by Chart.js – based on public rate data from Wise.com (June–July 2025).