How Wars and Sanctions Are Changing Business in Europe, Asia and the Middle East

In spring 2026, wars and sanctions have become part of the operating environment for business rather than background political noise. The war involving Iran has disrupted energy flows, freight and insurance, while the long aftershocks of the war in Ukraine continue to influence sanctions policy, trade patterns and industrial strategy across Europe. Reuters’ review of corporate disclosures found that since the Iran war began, 21 companies had withdrawn or cut forecasts, 32 had flagged price rises, and 31 had cited expected financial impacts. That is not a geopolitical side story. It is a direct business story. (Reuters)

The first and most immediate change is cost. Wars affect business first through energy, raw materials and transport. In Europe, the European Commission is preparing measures to soften what officials openly describe as a second energy crisis in four years, after gas prices rose sharply and fertiliser markets tightened because of the conflict around Hormuz. Reuters reported that urea prices had risen by 55% since the war began and that one-third of global fertiliser trade passes through the affected route. For manufacturers, agribusinesses and transport-heavy sectors, war is therefore showing up not as a headline, but as margin pressure. (Reuters)

What Will Happen to the World Economy Over the Next Six Months: Three Realistic Scenarios

In spring 2026, the central question for the world economy is no longer whether the Middle East war will inflict damage, but what kind of damage it will produce over the coming six months. The International Monetary Fund has already reset the baseline. In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, it projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 under a limited-conflict assumption, while warning that rising commodity prices, firmer inflation expectations and tighter financial conditions are testing the economy’s recent resilience. (IMF)

That shift matters because the baseline is now clearly weaker than the one markets were using before the Gulf shock intensified. Reuters reported that, in the IMF’s severe scenario, global inflation in 2026 would rise above 6%, versus 4.4% in the Fund’s reference scenario. This means the debate is no longer about a smooth return to normality, but about how persistent the inflation shock becomes and how deeply it feeds into growth, trade and financial conditions. (IMF)

Tehran’s Maritime Tollgate: How Iran Is Trying to Turn the Strait of Hormuz into a Paid Corridor

Iran is not placing a barrier across the water. It is building a system of licences, selective access, military pressure and political control that could make passage through Hormuz conditional rather than free. 

The Strait of Hormuz cannot be closed with a literal barrier. It is not a canal with a toll booth and it is not a port with gates. Yet Iran is attempting to achieve something close to the same result by different means: turning an international strait into a space where passage depends not only on maritime law, but on political permission, military control and prior coordination with Tehran. That is the real physical meaning of the system Iran is now trying to build.

Reuters reported on 7 April that Tehran wants the right, as part of a broader peace arrangement, to charge ships for transiting Hormuz. According to that report, Iranian officials said the fee would vary depending on the type of vessel, the cargo and the prevailing conditions. Reuters also reported that Iran says it is working with Oman on a protocol under which ships would need permits and licences in order to pass through the strait, although Oman had not publicly confirmed such an agreement at the time.

What the United Nations Security Council Is: Its History and Its Condition Today

The United Nations Security Council is the body to which the UN Charter gives primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. It has 15 members, each with one vote, and UN member states are obliged to comply with Council decisions adopted under the Charter. Unlike many other UN bodies, it is not merely a forum for debate. It is the institution that can investigate threats to peace, call for peaceful settlement, impose sanctions, and in some cases authorise the use of force.

Its origins lie in the post-war settlement of 1945. The UN Charter was signed in San Francisco on 26 June 1945 and entered into force on 24 October 1945. The Security Council was created because the founders of the United Nations wanted more than a diplomatic assembly; they wanted a mechanism capable of acting quickly when international peace was under direct threat.

Asian Business Mission 2026 in Almaty

On April 12, 2026, Almaty will host Asian Business Mission 2026, an international business platform that will bring together entrepreneurs, business leaders, investors, and innovators from across Asia and beyond. The event is set to become one of the key business gatherings in the region, strengthening Almaty’s role as an emerging centre for cross-border cooperation and entrepreneurial development.

Asian Business Week 2026 is designed to foster international partnerships, investment opportunities, and strategic dialogue. The programme will include high-level business forums, networking sessions, startup presentations, and partnership development meetings, creating a dynamic environment where ideas can evolve into real business opportunities.

The event will be held under the auspices of BOSS Business Club, World Woman Club and the European Association of Business Development, reinforcing its international статус and positioning it within a broader global ecosystem of business collaboration and leadership.

When the UN Could Not Act: What the Failed Hormuz Resolution Revealed About Global Power

A watered-down Security Council resolution on protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz still failed after Russia and China used their vetoes. The result was more than a diplomatic setback. It exposed how far the United Nations can be paralysed when great-power rivalry collides with a live strategic crisis. 

The failed United Nations vote on the Strait of Hormuz was not simply another procedural clash in New York. It became a test of whether the international system could respond quickly and credibly when one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints was under pressure. It failed that test. On 7 April 2026, Russia and China vetoed a Security Council resolution aimed at coordinating international efforts to protect commercial shipping through Hormuz, despite the fact that the draft had already been weakened in an attempt to make it acceptable to them.

The arithmetic of the vote was politically revealing. Eleven of the Council’s fifteen members voted in favour. Russia and China voted against. Pakistan and Colombia abstained. In any ordinary political forum, that would have been enough to pass the measure. In the Security Council, however, the veto remains the decisive instrument of power, and once it was used, the resolution was finished regardless of how broad the wider support had been.

Two Global Centres of War — Ukraine and Iran: What Force Decides When Diplomacy Sleeps

As of 7 April 2026, the world has at least two major theatres of war that can no longer be viewed in isolation from one another: Ukraine and Iran. Formally, these are different conflicts — one has been raging in Eastern Europe for a fifth year, while the other has, within a matter of weeks, turned into a Middle Eastern crisis of global significance. In reality, however, they are becoming ever more closely intertwined — through weapons, energy, global politics, and the limited diplomatic capacity of the great powers.

The war in Ukraine remains the largest land conflict in Europe since the Second World War. According to AP and Reuters, the front line stretches for roughly 1,250 kilometres; Russia continues its spring offensive, while Kyiv, despite isolated counterstrikes and the partial recovery of territory, is still fighting a war of attrition. At the same time, the diplomatic process has not disappeared entirely: Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed his readiness for a limited halt to strikes on energy infrastructure over Orthodox Easter, and Kyiv is expecting new contacts with American mediators after the negotiating track was slowed by the escalation in the Middle East.

What Will Happen to European Property Prices as the Gulf Crisis Unfolds

European property markets entered the new Gulf crisis in a far more delicate position than headline price data initially suggested. Eurostat said house prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 were up 5.1% year on year in the euro area and 5.5% across the EU, which points to a market that had been recovering rather than collapsing. But by early April 2026, UK data already showed how vulnerable that recovery was to a fresh energy and rates shock: Halifax reported a 0.5% monthly fall in house prices in March, while RICS said buyer demand, sales expectations and price expectations had all deteriorated sharply.

The main transmission mechanism is straightforward. The Gulf crisis affects European real estate not directly, but through higher energy prices, higher inflation expectations and more expensive money. The ECB said in March that the war in the Middle East had made the outlook “significantly more uncertain”, creating upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, and it revised its 2026 headline inflation projection up to 2.6% because energy prices would be higher. Even after the ceasefire announcement, Reuters reported that oil remained about 40% above pre-conflict levels, which means the inflation shock has eased from panic territory but not disappeared.

How Resilient Is the Modern Economy, and What Are Its Likely Paths Over the Next Six Months?

The modern world economy is more resilient than it was at the start of the pandemic or during the first energy shock of 2022, but it is not remotely insulated from a new external shock. Its strength lies in the fact that most major central banks entered this crisis with positive interest rates, more policy credibility than in the zero-rate era, and at least some room for targeted fiscal support. Its weakness lies in its continuing dependence on energy prices, maritime logistics, inflation expectations and fragile cross-border confidence. In practical terms, that means the system can absorb another serious shock, but only at the cost of slower growth, stickier inflation and tighter financial conditions.

As of 7 April 2026, the baseline had already deteriorated. World Bank President Ajay Banga said the war in the Middle East would lead to some degree of lower global growth and higher inflation even if the disruption proved relatively short-lived, and he estimated a possible hit to global GDP of roughly 0.3 to 1 percentage point, with inflation rising by as much as 0.9 percentage points depending on the severity and duration of the energy shock. Kristalina Georgieva’s message, as reported by Reuters, was similarly bleak: the direction of travel is towards higher prices and weaker growth.

What the World Economy Faces After the Iranian Crisis

The Iranian crisis has already moved beyond the category of a regional security shock. Even if the acute military phase begins to ease, the world economy is unlikely to return quickly to its previous equilibrium. World Bank President Ajay Banga said the conflict would mean some combination of slower growth and higher inflation even under a relatively short disruption, while IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the broad direction of travel is towards higher prices and weaker growth.

The immediate transmission mechanism is energy. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints: roughly 20 million barrels per day moved through it in 2024, and bypass pipeline capacity is only a fraction of that volume. In the current shock, Reuters reported physical crude prices near record highs around $150 a barrel for some grades, while broader benchmark prices moved sharply above $110. That matters because even a partial and temporary disruption changes refinery economics, freight pricing, and inflation expectations across the global system.

What follows is not necessarily a repeat of 2008-style financial collapse, but something more awkward: a period of slower growth, higher input costs, and more fragile confidence. Banga said global GDP could be reduced by roughly 0.3 to 1 percentage point, with inflation rising by as much as 0.9 percentage points depending on the severity and duration of the shock. That is the classic structure of an energy-driven squeeze: real incomes weaken, business costs rise, and policy room narrows at the same time.