The world braces for a major war: Putin at an impasse — the West ramps up its military power

Putin’s inertia and Europe’s unease

While Russia’s President Vladimir Putin continues policies that stoke international tension, his military push has reached a dead end. Setbacks at the front, exhausted resources and sanctions are constraining the Kremlin’s ambitions. Despite mobilisation efforts, Russia has yet to achieve decisive results. Meanwhile, the West — especially advanced economies — is markedly strengthening its defences, seemingly preparing for a new, large-scale phase on the global stage.

Record defence spending

According to SIPRI, global military expenditure in 2024 reached $2.718 trillion, up nearly 9.4% year on year — the steepest rise since the Cold War. In Europe the surge is particularly striking: spending rose 17% to $693 billion. The biggest spenders include the United States, China, Russia, Germany and India.

Europe moves beyond its previous posture

The European Union has hit a record high for defence outlays. Almost every member state increased its 2024 budget, many by 10% or more. Germany, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands are among those taking decisive steps to bolster defence.

Germany aims to more than double the size of its active army — from around 62,000 to roughly 160,000–200,000 personnel by 2035. Sweden plans to lift defence spending to 2.6% of GDP by 2028 and stand up four permanent brigades.

The UK and the US: strategy and production

The United Kingdom is reinforcing its defence through major investment. By 2027 spending is set to reach 2.5% of GDP, with priority given to ammunition production and the national nuclear programme.

The United States remains the world’s largest military budget: nearly $1 trillion in 2024, about 37% of global expenditure.

New hubs of arms production

China’s Parade of Power: Why the US and Europe Risk Defeat

The 3 September 2025 parade revealed a fractured West — and a China no longer hiding its ambitions

By Professor Andrew Azarov, Business and Economics, International Business academy Consortium (UK)

Part I. Introduction and General Context

On 3 September 2025, the world witnessed an event that is difficult to overestimate: a grand military parade in Beijing, organised to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. At first glance, it was just a traditional celebration, a demonstration of strength and discipline. In reality, however, it was something much greater: a political declaration, a strategic manifesto, and a signal to the entire world that the international balance of power is shifting rapidly.

China demonstrated not only military might but also its ambition to become the architectural centre of a new world order. From columns of intercontinental ballistic missiles DF-5C to the latest unmanned systems, from the strict synchrony of the parade to the carefully choreographed presence of foreign leaders – every element was aimed not at the domestic audience, but at the global stage.

Russia-Ukraine War and trade wars at the SCO Summit 2025

The leaders of China and India say there is now deepening trust between them after years of tension that includes a long-running border dispute.

China's President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) in the port city of Tianjin. It is Modi's first time in China in seven years.

Xi told Modi that China and India should be partners, not rivals, while Modi said there was now an "atmosphere of peace and stability" between them.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is also at the summit, attended by more than 20 world leaders, which this year has been overshadowed by trade wars with the US.

US President Donald Trump has imposed steep tariffs on Indian goods as punishment for Delhi's continued purchase of Russian oil, and Putin faces threats of sanctions for his ongoing war on Ukraine.

As the US-India relationship faces increasing headwinds, Modi is moving closer to Xi. Both countries are not only the most populous, but also have two of the largest economies in the world.

Modi announced that flights between India and China - suspended since deadly troop clashes on their shared Himalayan border in 2020 - would resume, without providing a timeline.

Xi said "both sides need to approach and handle our relationship from a strategic height and long-term perspective" and that "it is the right choice for both sides to be friends".

The SCO summit itself is largely symbolic but will allow leaders to air common grievances and shared interests. It comes days before a massive military parade in Beijing that will mark 80 years since the end of World War Two.

There are 10 member states in the grouping - including Russia, Pakistan and Iran - and 16 dialogue partners and observers.

Putin, who is a close ally of China, arrived to a red carpet welcome in Tianjin on Sunday.

The SCO was created by China, Russia and four Central Asian countries in 2001 as a countermeasure to limit the influence of Western alliances such as Nato.

This year's gathering is the largest since it was founded.

Jessica Berlin: Stop Being Shocked by Trump. Start Stopping Russia.

Jessica Berlin: "Trump’s incompetence on Russia is matched only by Europe’s incompetence on Trump".

It’s been over ten years since Donald Trump descended a golden escalator to announce his candidacy for U.S. president. Europe has been clutching its collective pearls over how to deal with him ever since.

In that time, we have had an entire four-year term to observe his incompetence, egomania, and erratic behavior; a four-year Biden breather during which we were warned of and could have prepared for Trump’s return; and now, more than half a year into his second term, clear evidence that he is just as vindictive and incompetent as he seemed on the campaign trail. Yet European leaders still act surprised when he does something reckless or dangerous – like, say, invite Vladimir Putin to a bilateral summit in Alaska.

For over a decade, European leaders have been caught in a reactive loop: shocked when Trump behaves exactly as he always does, relieved when he momentarily pivots, paralysed when he inevitably reverts. This is not grand strategy, it’s political whiplash.

Global Business Week 2025: Charting the Future

Malé, Maldives – July 7-15, 2025 – The 25th anniversary of Global Business Week (GBW), the premier gathering of the international business elite, concluded triumphantly on July 15th, 2025, against the breathtaking backdrop of the Maldives. Held from July 7th to 15th across several idyllic island resorts, this landmark edition successfully blended high-level strategic discourse with unparalleled networking opportunities, solidifying its status as the indispensable forum for shaping the future of global commerce.

Celebrating a quarter-century of fostering innovation and driving sustainable growth, GBW 2025 lived up to its prestigious reputation. Over 250 top entrepreneurs, visionary CEOs, influential investors, and leading innovators from more than 35 nations converged in this tropical paradise. The stunning setting of turquoise waters, pristine beaches, and luxurious resorts provided more than just scenery; it fostered a unique atmosphere of openness, collaboration, and forward-thinking energy.

How US Tariffs on China Reshaped Financial Flows: Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Risks

By Professor Andrew Azarov, Business and Economics, International Business academy Consortium (UK)

The recent escalation of US tariffs on Chinese goods has done more than just increase prices—it has fundamentally shifted how financial flows move between corporations, the federal government, and international suppliers. While Washington now collects billions in tariff revenue directly from importers, this policy has also reshaped the profitability of US companies, the cost burden for consumers, and the long-term structure of global trade.

The Old Model: How US Firms Benefited Before Tariffs

Before the recent wave of tariffs, American companies enjoyed a relatively predictable flow of trade and taxation:

• US companies imported goods from China and resold them domestically.
• Profits stayed in the private sector, taxed later through corporate income tax.
• Consumers benefited from low-cost imports.
• The government collected revenue primarily through conventional taxation rather than trade barriers.

This system allowed for stable margins for US companies, which, in turn, contributed to federal revenue via traditional tax mechanisms.