Putin’s inertia and Europe’s unease
While Russia’s President Vladimir Putin continues policies that stoke international tension, his military push has reached a dead end. Setbacks at the front, exhausted resources and sanctions are constraining the Kremlin’s ambitions. Despite mobilisation efforts, Russia has yet to achieve decisive results. Meanwhile, the West — especially advanced economies — is markedly strengthening its defences, seemingly preparing for a new, large-scale phase on the global stage.
Record defence spending
According to SIPRI, global military expenditure in 2024 reached $2.718 trillion, up nearly 9.4% year on year — the steepest rise since the Cold War. In Europe the surge is particularly striking: spending rose 17% to $693 billion. The biggest spenders include the United States, China, Russia, Germany and India.
Europe moves beyond its previous posture
The European Union has hit a record high for defence outlays. Almost every member state increased its 2024 budget, many by 10% or more. Germany, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands are among those taking decisive steps to bolster defence.
Germany aims to more than double the size of its active army — from around 62,000 to roughly 160,000–200,000 personnel by 2035. Sweden plans to lift defence spending to 2.6% of GDP by 2028 and stand up four permanent brigades.
The UK and the US: strategy and production
The United Kingdom is reinforcing its defence through major investment. By 2027 spending is set to reach 2.5% of GDP, with priority given to ammunition production and the national nuclear programme.
The United States remains the world’s largest military budget: nearly $1 trillion in 2024, about 37% of global expenditure.
New hubs of arms production
Poland plans to increase output of 155 mm and 120 mm shells fivefold, targeting an annual volume of 150,000–180,000. This is part of a push to reduce reliance on external suppliers. The UK and BAE Systems are assisting Poland in establishing production facilities.
NATO strengthens its defences
At the 2025 Hague summit, NATO allies set a headline ambition for defence-related spending of 5% of GDP, with 3.5% directed to core military needs and the remainder to related areas. It reflects a shift towards a “war-economy” footing and the need to reinforce the industrial base.
Russia’s difficult position
Putin maintains a rhetoric of threats — including warnings of strikes against Western troops in Ukraine — yet Russia continues to suffer heavy losses and supply problems. Western nations are scaling up capabilities more quickly, narrowing and, in some areas, overtaking Moscow’s advantages.
Conclusion
The world does appear to be edging towards a new major war — not out of desire, but as a cumulative reaction to aggression. Putin finds himself in a strategic cul-de-sac: belligerence begets deepening isolation while resources run down. At the same time, Europe, the UK, the US and other powers are expanding their defence capacity, strengthening industry and readying their forces for a potential global confrontation.
The next few years will be pivotal: either diplomacy regains traction, or the world enters a new era of military alliances and an arms race.