It’s been over ten years since Donald Trump descended a golden escalator to announce his candidacy for U.S. president. Europe has been clutching its collective pearls over how to deal with him ever since.
In that time, we have had an entire four-year term to observe his incompetence, egomania, and erratic behavior; a four-year Biden breather during which we were warned of and could have prepared for Trump’s return; and now, more than half a year into his second term, clear evidence that he is just as vindictive and incompetent as he seemed on the campaign trail. Yet European leaders still act surprised when he does something reckless or dangerous – like, say, invite Vladimir Putin to a bilateral summit in Alaska.
For over a decade, European leaders have been caught in a reactive loop: shocked when Trump behaves exactly as he always does, relieved when he momentarily pivots, paralysed when he inevitably reverts. This is not grand strategy, it’s political whiplash.
The cycle is predictable: Trump makes a destabilising move that helps Russia or harms Ukraine, like siding with Vladimir Putin over US intelligence on election interference in Helsinki in 2018, or berating President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office this February. European leaders react with shock. Later Trump pulls a 180 and does something we want, like approving new Patriot missile systems for Ukraine last month, and they breathe a sigh of relief. Then he swings back again, as now with the Alaska summit. Europe freaked out, again, then was somewhat relieved, again, when Trump agreed not to offer Ukrainian territory to Russia during the virtual summit on Wednesday. The merry-go-round spins on.
This pattern, and Trump’s sympathy for autocrats, aren’t new. During his first term, Trump froze military aid to Ukraine in 2019 while pressing Zelenskyy to open an investigation into Hunter Biden. He has repeatedly praised autocrats, calling Kim Jong Un “a pretty smart cookie,” ” Xi Jinping “a terrific guy,” and just today called Belarusian dictator Lukashenko “highly respected.” At the same time, he repeatedly attacks democratic allies as “delinquent” and “unfair,” and has threatened to pull the US out of NATO.
Trump obviously cannot be relied upon to defend European interests, democratic values, or even territorial security. He is on no one’s side but his own. Yet Europe continues to let his whims dictate our strategy (or lack thereof).
The Alaska summit is simply the latest example. Whether it ends in a debacle of American concessions to Russia or ends up ‘just’ being a diplomatic disgrace with no policy output, we can’t count on its results to last a month. As the new acronym circulating in Washington puts it, TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out. He always breaks his word. His one consistent trait is inconsistency. For Europe to base its strategy on the US is like building a bridge on quicksand and then acting surprised when it sinks.
Europe’s strategy to defeat Russia in Ukraine must be European. We must stop using Trump’s outrages as an excuse for not acting ourselves. The means to secure Ukraine’s victory and dismantle Russia’s war machine already exist within Europe’s collective power. Europe can and should:
- Increase and enforce sanctions to tank Russia’s economic war machine. That means ending all Russian energy and commodity imports, closing loopholes, shutting down Russia’s shadow fleet, and imposing secondary sanctions on those who help Moscow circumvent restrictions.
- Seize Russian assets – both state funds and Kremlin-linked private wealth parked in European banks – and transfer them to Ukraine for reconstruction and defense financing.
- Deny all non-asylum visas to Russian citizens, signalling that there is no business as usual while the war continues.
- Scale up military aid without delay, delivering promised weapons and ammunition on schedule.
- Support Ukrainian air defence through the Sky Shield initiative to protect Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
- Increase long-term financial support through EU institutions to guarantee Ukraine’s economic survival through the war and beyond.
These are policy options entirely within Europe’s reach. Choosing not to act is still an active choice.
After more than ten years of Trump and 3.5 years of full-scale war in Ukraine, Europeans have no one to blame but themselves for lacking a strategy to deal with Trump and Putin. No matter what happens in Alaska today, the United States and Russia bear full responsibility for their actions. Europe bears equal responsibility for its own inaction.