The 3 September 2025 parade revealed a fractured West — and a China no longer hiding its ambitions
By Professor Andrew Azarov, Business and Economics, International Business academy Consortium (UK)
Part I. Introduction and General Context
On 3 September 2025, the world witnessed an event that is difficult to overestimate: a grand military parade in Beijing, organised to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. At first glance, it was just a traditional celebration, a demonstration of strength and discipline. In reality, however, it was something much greater: a political declaration, a strategic manifesto, and a signal to the entire world that the international balance of power is shifting rapidly.
China demonstrated not only military might but also its ambition to become the architectural centre of a new world order. From columns of intercontinental ballistic missiles DF-5C to the latest unmanned systems, from the strict synchrony of the parade to the carefully choreographed presence of foreign leaders – every element was aimed not at the domestic audience, but at the global stage.
And here lies the main challenge for the West: the United States and Europe were left standing aside. If a decade ago such parades were perceived in Washington as mere symbolic rhetoric, today they form part of Beijing’s systemic strategy. Yet America, mired in its own political crises, failed to respond in time and to develop a coherent containment strategy.
The mistake of the United States
Over the last 20 years, the United States has missed its moment. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan exhausted resources. Political polarisation paralysed the capacity for long-term planning. The “America First” policy alienated allies and eroded trust. Meanwhile, China was building strength – not only militarily, but also economically, diplomatically, and technologically.
Symbolically, the parade in Beijing took place at a moment when the US is no longer perceived in Asia as the sole guarantor of security. Its role has become debatable, its words less weighty, and its commitments increasingly questioned.
Europe in disarray
The European Union finds itself in an even more vulnerable position. Formally, it supports Ukraine and speaks of strategic autonomy. In practice, however, it is divided by the interests of individual states. Germany and France increasingly engage in independent talks with China, Italy wavers between Brussels and Beijing, while Eastern Europe looks to Washington but is increasingly doubtful of its ability to deliver protection.
The United Kingdom, following Brexit, also lost much of its traditional influence as a bridge between the US and the EU. London is trying to strengthen its presence in the Indo-Pacific, but without coordination with allies, such efforts are reduced in effectiveness.
A new centre of power
The key message of the Beijing parade was clear: the world is entering an era of three poles. The first is the United States, formally retaining leadership but increasingly weakened by internal crises. The second is Europe, unable to produce a common strategy. And the third is China, which no longer merely aspires but openly asserts its right to global leadership.
This is what makes the 2025 parade historic. For the first time since the Cold War, the West does not hold a monopoly on power, technology, and alliances. More than that, the event highlighted a fracture that Beijing is determined to exploit to the fullest.
Part II. The Symbolism of the Parade
The military parade in Beijing on 3 September 2025 was carefully staged as a theatrical performance with profound political undertones. Every detail – from the weaponry and marching formations to the composition of foreign guests – carried symbolic meaning. For China, this was not merely a day of remembrance, but an instrument of grand strategy: a demonstration of power and at the same time an invitation to a new world order.
The nuclear arsenal on Tiananmen Square
The central focus of the parade was the intercontinental ballistic missiles DF-5C. Their appearance was a direct challenge not only to the United States but to the entire Western alliance. These missiles can strike targets more than 12,000 kilometres away, placing virtually any point on the globe within range.
They were displayed prominently in the very centre of the procession, underlining that China has firmly secured its status as a fully fledged nuclear superpower. The visual effect was calculated to the smallest detail: massive rockets, painted in dark tones with bold lettering “DF-5C”, symbolised a new stage of Chinese strategic self-awareness – from mere defence to global deterrence.
For international observers, the message was clear: Beijing is ready to dictate the rules not only in Asia but far beyond.
The drone revolution
Equally important were the formations showcasing the latest unmanned systems. The parade featured strike drones, reconnaissance platforms and even underwater autonomous vehicles. This emphasised China’s focus on asymmetric technologies, designed to neutralise traditional American superiority in the air and at sea.
Particularly striking were models resembling next-generation stealth drones. These signalled that China aims for technological autonomy, preparing for future wars in which unmanned systems will play a decisive role.
A mosaic of allies
The diplomatic symbolism of the parade was no less significant. Dozens of foreign leaders attended. Cameras captured handshakes and group photos in which Xi Jinping stood alongside representatives of India, Russia, Central Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Especially notable was the presence of the Indian leader. Despite historic rivalry between India and China, his participation demonstrated New Delhi’s flexibility. India sent a signal: it is not prepared to be fully absorbed into Washington’s orbit and is ready to balance between the US and Beijing.
The choreography of power
The very organisation of the parade added another layer of symbolism. Dense ranks of troops in white, black and camouflage uniforms marched in carefully arranged sectors, creating the impression of iron discipline and unity. Red carpets and the backdrop of Mao Zedong’s portrait against the Forbidden City added a sense of historical continuity: China was presenting its current power as the heir of revolutionary tradition.
This transformed the parade into a spectacle aimed squarely at the global audience. Beijing displayed not just weapons, but an ideology: strength, order, and readiness for decisive action.
A stark contrast with the West
Meanwhile, in Western capitals confusion reigned. The United States and the EU officially declared that they saw no reason to send delegations to Beijing. Yet this “boycott” looked less like a gesture of protest than an admission of weakness. After all, dozens of leaders gathered in China, openly participating in the formation of an “alternative club”.
Thus, the symbolism of the parade turned out to be multilayered: it displayed military might, political flexibility, historical continuity and a new system of alliances. It was a challenge to the West – and an invitation to the rest of the world.
Part III. The Mistakes of the United States and the Loss of Leadership
If the parade in Beijing is viewed as a mirror of world politics, then the United States appeared in it as the most vulnerable reflection. America, which after 1945 acted as the chief architect of the world order, in 2025 looked as though it had lost its strategic compass. This is no coincidence, but the result of cumulative errors over the past decades – compounded by the current course of Washington.
The loss of long-term strategy
Since the end of the Cold War, the US has grown accustomed to thinking in tactical rather than strategic terms. The successes of the 1990s – from the collapse of the Soviet Union to NATO enlargement – created the illusion that America could afford improvisation. Wars in the Middle East, the 2008 financial crisis and the rise of populism gradually undermined the capacity for long-term planning.
China, by contrast, pursued the opposite course: building its own strategy step by step, with decades in mind. The “Belt and Road Initiative”, the modernisation of the army, the pursuit of technological independence – all were connected within a single systemic vision.
American elites, instead of consolidating, became trapped in endless internal struggles.
The Trump era and the erosion of alliances
The return of Donald Trump to the White House became a turning point. Under the slogan “America First”, he effectively began dismantling the system of alliances upon which American global primacy rested.
– Undermining trust in NATO: Loud statements that the US was “not obliged” to defend allies called into question the very meaning of collective defence. For Moscow and Beijing, this sounded like an invitation to test the alliance.
– Protectionism and trade wars: Instead of uniting the West against China’s economic expansion, Trump imposed tariffs not only on Beijing but also on the EU, Canada and South Korea. This pushed traditional allies towards seeking alternative partnerships, including with China itself.
– Scepticism towards Ukraine: Claims that “Europe must take care of the Ukraine war itself” weakened Kyiv’s confidence in long-term American support. For Beijing and Moscow, this was interpreted as a green light to intensify pressure.
– Neglect of Indo-Pacific partnerships: Preferring bilateral deals over multilateral alliances, Washington lost ground in a region where China was rapidly consolidating influence through ASEAN, Africa and Latin America.
China no longer hides its ambitions
American missteps gave Beijing what it had waited for decades: the opportunity to step out of the shadows. China no longer sees the need to hide its ambitions behind the mask of a “developing power”. The Beijing parade symbolised this transition: for the first time, Xi Jinping openly demonstrated that China intends not just to catch up but to set the global agenda.
– Military demonstration: Parades once aimed at domestic audiences are now addressed directly to the West, conveying: “We are not afraid of confrontation.”
– Diplomatic front: The presence of India, Central Asia and Africa shows not peripheral ties but the creation of an alternative centre of power.
– Economic independence: Sanctions, once seen as a tool of control, pushed China into rapid import substitution. It now proudly displays its own technologies, including military.
A symbolic defeat for Washington
The very absence of the US and its allies at the Beijing parade symbolised America’s diminishing centrality. In the 20th century, non-participation in such an event would have been read as a challenge requiring response. In 2025, it looked more like an admission of weakness.
To much of the world, America now appears inconsistent: demanding loyalty from allies while shirking commitments itself. This erodes trust and opens the way for China to position itself as the “new guarantor of stability”.
Thus, the current course of the US under Trump has given China precisely what it long desired: the chance to act without fear and openly claim global supremacy.
Beijing is no longer afraid. It no longer hides. And that is the ultimate result of America’s mistakes.
Part IV. Europe, the United Kingdom and China’s Control over Russia
The parade in Beijing on 3 September 2025 carried not only military and diplomatic meaning but also a hidden economic subtext. China revealed to the world that it now possesses a resource base capable of sustaining long-term global ambitions. At the heart of this base lies Russia, transformed into a dependent “raw-material province”.
Russia as a source of “cheap resources”
Amid sanctions and international isolation, Moscow has been reduced to the position of a vassal. European markets are closed, access to technology restricted, Western investment collapsed. In such conditions, the Kremlin had no choice but to turn to China.
The Beijing parade demonstrated that, for China, this is not a temporary alliance but a strategic prize. Russia supplies Beijing with what it needs most: oil, gas, uranium, timber, metals and grain – all at prices dictated by China itself.
In Siberia and the Far East, Chinese companies already de facto control key infrastructure projects. For Beijing, these territories are becoming a “strategic resource corridor”, directly tied to its economy.
China will not allow Russia to lose
From this follows a crucial conclusion: Beijing will not allow Moscow to be defeated in the war against Ukraine. Not out of altruism or “allied duty”, but for pragmatic reasons.
– A Russian defeat = a Chinese setback. If Putin’s regime collapses, China risks losing guaranteed access to cheap raw materials. This would strike at the foundations of an economy built on large-scale production and exports.
– Russia as a buffer. For Beijing, Russia functions as a geopolitical shield, distracting Western resources and attention. While Europe and the US focus on Ukraine, China has time to strengthen its positions in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
– Dependence as control. Moscow is ever more deeply absorbed into China’s orbit: from settlements in yuan to joint energy projects. Beijing can calibrate its level of support – diplomatic, financial or technological – to ensure Russia remains dependent but does not collapse.
Europe and the United Kingdom: danger at the gates
For Europe, this dynamic is a mortal danger. Ukraine is not only a frontline against Russian aggression but also a barrier against China. If Russia retains military strength thanks to Chinese resources, the threat will persist even if the war is frozen.
The United Kingdom, traditionally more hawkish towards Moscow and Beijing, recognises the risks but cannot counter them alone. Without coordination with the EU, London’s efforts lose weight.
The European Union itself is divided: some states advocate tough measures against China, others (Germany, France, Hungary) fear economic losses and prefer accommodation. This weakens the collective front and plays directly into Beijing’s hands.
The parade as a declaration of a “new empire”
The deepest symbolism of the parade was that China openly displayed its view of Russia not as an equal partner, but as a resource base. The columns of DF-5C missiles and drone formations were not just a message to the US, but also to Europe: “We can wage wars for decades, because we possess an inexhaustible source of energy and raw materials.”
This was a signal to Europe and the UK: unless they unite with the US and other allies, they will soon face not simply Russia, but a Russia sustained by Chinese resources and technologies.
The economic immortality of Beijing
China’s greatest advantage is its ability to perpetually strengthen its economic power through its “province” – the Russian Federation. As long as Moscow supplies oil and gas at dumping prices, Beijing can:
– keep production costs low;
– channel investment into military and technological innovation;
– accelerate economic expansion in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
In this sense, the Beijing parade was not only a display of military might but also a declaration of economic immortality. China demonstrated that it is ready for a long struggle because it possesses a strategic foundation anchored in Siberia and the Far East.
Part V. Ukraine and the Scenarios of War under the China–Russia Alliance
The Beijing parade of 3 September 2025 crystallised a new reality: the war in Ukraine is no longer solely a conflict between Kyiv and Moscow. It is becoming the battleground of a broader global confrontation, with China increasingly playing the role of guarantor of the Russian regime’s survival.
China as Russia’s rear base
Before 2022, Russia’s key weakness was believed to be its limited resources for waging a prolonged war. Sanctions, exclusion from Western technology, and budgetary exhaustion were expected to lead to collapse.
After the Beijing parade, it became clear that Moscow now possesses an “endless rear”. By transforming Russia into its resource base, China is prepared to supply the Kremlin with everything necessary to continue the war:
– energy and currency through purchases of oil and gas;
– dual-use technologies disguised as civilian trade;
– political protection at the UN and international forums;
– logistical routes and access to Asian markets.
This means Russia can fight for years without experiencing critical exhaustion.
Ukraine facing growing isolation
For Ukraine, this creates new challenges. If in 2022–2023 the West managed to deliver decisive financial and military aid, by 2025 that support has weakened.
– The US, paralysed by domestic divisions, is no longer a reliable guarantor of consistent aid.
– The EU is split: some states are fatigued by the war, others fear direct confrontation with China.
– The United Kingdom remains a steadfast ally, but its resources are limited.
As a result, Ukraine risks finding itself in a position where its struggle depends not only on its own resilience but on the wavering political will of the West.
Scenario 1: A war without end
The most likely outcome is a prolonged war. China sustains Russia with resources, while the West continues to support Ukraine “in doses”, sufficient to prevent collapse but insufficient for decisive victory. The conflict then freezes into a permanent frontline, draining lives and stalling Ukraine’s recovery.
Scenario 2: “Peace” on Moscow and Beijing’s terms
Another possibility is pressure on Kyiv to accept a “peace” dictated by Moscow. For China, this would be convenient: the war would not end fully, but the West would de facto acknowledge Ukraine’s defeat. Russia would retain its occupied territories, and Beijing would present itself as a guarantor of the “new order”.
This scenario is particularly dangerous: it would demoralise Ukraine’s allies and cement Europe’s dependency on Chinese diplomacy.
Scenario 3: Escalation and expansion
The third scenario is sharp escalation. Confident of Chinese support, Moscow could attempt fresh offensives. Ukraine, bolstered by limited but crucial Western systems, would resist. The result could be expansion beyond Ukraine: strikes on European infrastructure, new conflict zones in the Caucasus or the Baltic region.
This scenario carries direct risks for NATO, potentially turning the Ukraine war into a prelude to a Fourth World War.
Ukraine as Europe’s frontier
Regardless of the scenario, one fact is clear: Ukraine today is not just defending its sovereignty but also serving as Europe’s frontier against the China–Russia bloc. If Ukraine falls, Beijing secures a precedent: the West could not defend an ally. That precedent would echo in Taiwan, the South China Sea, the Middle East and Africa.
This is why the Beijing parade should have rung alarm bells in Brussels and London. The question is whether European capitals will hear the signal – and whether they can muster the unity to act.
Part VI. China’s Economic Expansion and Global Dependence
The military parade in Beijing on 3 September 2025 can be seen not only as a show of force but also as a symbol of global economic transformation. Behind every column of missiles and drones stood an invisible army of Chinese investments, trade agreements and loans spanning every continent. China demonstrated that it can not only fight but also economically subordinate vast parts of the world, turning entire regions into spheres of dependence.
The Belt and Road Initiative as an infrastructure empire
Launched in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative was initially presented as a development project. By 2025, however, it had become clear: this was the foundation of China’s economic empire.
– In Africa, Beijing controls key mines of copper, cobalt and lithium – vital for Chinese batteries, smartphones and electric vehicles.
– In Latin America, China has invested in ports and railways, transforming the region into a “far-flung hub” for its exports.
– In Europe, Chinese companies have purchased and built terminals and even entire ports in Greece, Italy and Spain.
What was once labelled “co-operation” has become a network of economic control.
Africa: a continent under Chinese patronage
Africa offers the clearest example of this new dependence. China has provided loans to dozens of countries for roads, power plants and stadiums. Yet these projects conceal onerous terms: failure to repay leads to the transfer of strategic assets into Chinese hands.
Today, Chinese firms manage ports in Kenya, Angola and Nigeria. They dominate lithium extraction in the Congo and cobalt mining in Zambia. Africa is turning into a raw-material appendage of China’s economy, while its governments become ever more reliant on Beijing.
Latin America: a geopolitical beachhead
China is equally active in Latin America – a region long regarded as America’s “backyard”.
In Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina, Chinese firms gained access to oil and gas fields. In Brazil, they invested in agriculture and soy exports. New ports and railways in Chile and Peru now provide Beijing with direct Pacific routes.
This is a visible incursion into areas once thought exclusively under Washington’s influence.
Europe: dependence disguised as trade
Europe for years believed itself immune to Chinese leverage. The Beijing parade reminded the world that EU dependence is already profound:
– over 70% of solar panels in the EU are manufactured in China;
– German and French carmakers rely heavily on the Chinese market;
– Mediterranean ports are partly controlled by Chinese corporations.
Every economic move Brussels makes now factors in Beijing’s reaction, limiting Europe’s freedom of action.
Russia as the “fuel battery” of expansion
Russia occupies a special place in this system. Raw materials from Siberia and the Far East are not merely energy inputs for Chinese factories but the foundation of global expansion. Cheap gas keeps production costs low, oil sustains transport and industry, and metals and uranium feed new defence projects.
Russia has been reduced to the role of “fuel battery” for Beijing’s global project. While the Kremlin continues its war against Ukraine, China strengthens its global position, drawing on resources acquired at near giveaway prices.
Economic war instead of tanks
The essential conclusion is that China’s strategy is not confined to missiles and tanks. Its true offensive lies in ports, roads and industrial zones. By weaving an economic network across continents, Beijing has secured influence that military power merely underpins.
Today, China’s economy is a web enveloping the globe. And Russia sits at its heart, providing the energy that powers Beijing’s worldwide advance.
Part VII. The Risk of a Fourth World War and the Last Chance to Prevent It
On 3 September 2025, Beijing staged more than a parade. It delivered a warning. By displaying its missiles and drones, China effectively declared: the world order built by the United States and its allies after the Second World War is reaching its end. The new order is being forged not in negotiating rooms, but on parade grounds and battlefields.
The logic of confrontation
History shows that when several great powers simultaneously vie for leadership, conflict becomes almost inevitable. In the early 20th century, the scramble for colonies and influence led to the First World War. In the mid-century, the rivalry between Nazi Germany and the Western democracies culminated in the Second. Today we are witnessing a repetition of that pattern:
– China is striving for global supremacy, fuelled by Russian resources and its Belt and Road economic web.
– Russia seeks survival through aggression against Ukraine, propped up by Chinese backing.
– The United States is losing the ability to manage alliances and to think long-term.
– Europe is torn between economic dependence on China and fear of Russia.
This is a textbook recipe for a world war: multiple centres of power, lack of trust, and failure to reach compromise.
Ukraine as the trigger
Ukraine is not merely a battleground between Kyiv and Moscow. It is the potential trigger for a Fourth World War.
If China continues to sustain Russia, the war will drag on. If the US and Europe cannot coordinate a united strategy, Ukraine risks losing Western support. In the event of sudden escalation – a missile strike on Poland, Lithuania or Romania; a cyberattack against Germany’s infrastructure; an assault on Black Sea shipping – the conflict could escalate into a direct NATO confrontation.
Taiwan and the South China Sea
Another flashpoint is Taiwan. Should Beijing decide the moment is favourable, it may attempt an invasion. Washington would then face a stark choice: intervene and risk global war, or stand aside and surrender its leadership.
Meanwhile, in the South China Sea, China has already built military bases on artificial islands and is increasingly testing American resolve.
Economic war as the prelude
The Fourth World War may not begin with tanks but with economies. Sweeping sanctions, tariff wars, cyberattacks and the blocking of sea lanes could paralyse global trade. The resulting chaos, inflation and social crises would destabilise entire nations. Beijing and Moscow could employ precisely this method to undermine the West without firing a shot.
The last opportunity for the West
Yet war is not inevitable. It can still be prevented if the US, EU, UK and their allies take overdue steps:
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A single strategy – not fragmented policies from Washington, Berlin or Paris, but a comprehensive plan covering Ukraine, Taiwan, the Middle East and Africa.
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Economic consolidation – an alternative to the Belt and Road, with investment in infrastructure across developing nations.
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Military modernisation – joint programmes in missile defence, hypersonics and cyber capabilities.
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Ideological leadership – reasserting democracy, human rights and open markets as the foundations of stability and prosperity.
Without these steps, avoiding global conflict will be impossible.
The parade as a signal
The Beijing parade was what analysts call a “signal of readiness”. China showed that it is prepared for any scenario: a protracted stand-off, regional wars, even global confrontation. The question is no longer what Beijing desires, but whether the West is ready to respond.
Part VIII. Conclusion
The Beijing parade of 3 September 2025 will enter history not as a commemoration of the end of the Second World War, but as a declaration of a new era. An era in which China openly asserts its claim to global supremacy, and Russia appears as a dependent “raw-material province”, supplying Beijing with the resources needed for endless expansion.
The United States: the end of exceptionalism
For the United States, the parade was a painful reminder: the age of unquestioned American primacy is over. Decades of missteps – compounded by Donald Trump’s “America First” course – have eroded allied trust and crippled long-term strategic thinking. Washington has lived too long in the past, while Beijing seized the future.
Europe and the United Kingdom: the need to choose
Europe faces an even harsher dilemma. Divisions within the EU, reliance on Chinese markets and weakness in defence make it dangerously exposed. The United Kingdom, despite its hard line, cannot face the China–Russia bloc alone. London and Brussels must end their rivalry and develop a joint strategy. Otherwise, their fate will be determined not in Europe’s capitals, but in Beijing and Moscow.
Ukraine: the frontier of civilisations
The war in Ukraine is no local conflict. It is the frontline of global confrontation. China has made it clear: it will not allow Russia to lose. This means Ukraine is fighting not only Moscow, but also Beijing, which supplies the Kremlin with resources and diplomatic cover. If Ukraine falls, the message to the world will be blunt: the West cannot protect its allies.
China: the economy as a weapon
China’s greatest weapon is not missiles but its economy. Its global network of infrastructure projects, stretching from Africa to Latin America, has made Beijing the creditor and investor of half the world. Russian resources have become the “fuel battery” of this system. The parade showed that China is ready for the long game, equipped with a strategic rear and a clear ideology of a “new order” with itself at the centre.
The last chance to avoid world war
We stand at the threshold of a Fourth World War. Its trigger could be Ukraine, Taiwan, the South China Sea or a cyberattack. But catastrophe can still be averted if the West:
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Forged a unified strategy – the US, EU and UK must speak with one voice.
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Invested in defence and technology – from hypersonics to cyber security.
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Provided an economic alternative – developing nations must be offered more than China’s Belt and Road.
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Restored ideological leadership – reminding the world that democracy and freedom are not abstractions but the foundations of stability and prosperity.
The verdict of the parade
The Beijing parade was not a celebration but a challenge. It showed that China no longer fears or conceals its ambitions. Russia has been reduced to Beijing’s vassal. The United States and Europe now face a choice: to unite and defend the global order, or to surrender the future to authoritarian empires.
The question the parade posed to us all is stark: are we ready to fight for peace and freedom, or shall we abandon them to the mercy of a new empire?