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Wednesday, 5 November 2025

Wednesday, November 05, 2025

Forecast of Timelines for Military Escalation between “Civilisational Models”

Methodology. The analysis looks not at “cultures” but at institutional and industrial blocs: on one side, the democratic alliances (NATO/G7), on the other, the authoritarian bloc (Russia–North Korea–Iran, with China in a more ambiguous position). Key drivers of escalation timelines include the pace of ammunition production, budgetary choices, and elites’ tolerance of risk.

September 2025 – March 2026: Moscow’s “window of pressure” (high risk of local escalations)

Russia retains an advantage in ammunition thanks to its own production capacities and large-scale deliveries from North Korea (reportedly millions of shells), while the US and EU have yet to reach their announced output targets. This creates incentives for intensified strikes and provocations on NATO’s periphery.

April – December 2026: resource parity (moderate risk)

By late 2025, the EU expects to reach production of around 2 million 155-mm shells annually, while the US aims for 100,000 per month by mid-2026. Once stockpiles are replenished, artillery parity emerges, reducing incentives for major offensives and shifting the focus to air defence, electronic warfare and long-range systems.

2027–2029: consolidation of a Western “war economy” (moderately low risk of direct NATO–Russia war, high risk of hybrid crises)

The UK commits to 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2027 and invests in a new network of arms factories; Poland boosts shell production fivefold; Germany expands troop numbers in line with NATO’s new requirements. This gradually shifts the balance of power. In response, the authoritarian bloc intensifies grey-zone tactics — cyberattacks, energy blackmail and influence operations.

2030–2035: NATO’s structural superiority (low risk of a major European war, rising global frictions)

NATO has set a benchmark of at least 3.5% of GDP for core defence by 2035, and 5% in the broader “security economy” framework. For many members, this means multiple increases in military budgets and industrial output. The likelihood of a direct Russia–NATO confrontation in Europe declines, but the probability of conflict flashpoints in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific grows.

Scenarios of China’s Involvement in the Conflict

Thursday, 30 October 2025

Thursday, October 30, 2025

Olga Azarova: 20 Secrets of Leading Women’s Communities






Dr Olga Azarova,
Founder & President of World Woman Club International Business Network, Founder of 44 businesses, Laureate of the FORTUNE 500 Most Powerful Women Award, USA.

Over 20 years of leading a women’s club, I have gained a deep understanding of both female sensitivity and fragility, and at the same time, female endurance and heroism. From this experience, I can share 20 secrets of working with women’s communities — an alchemy of emotion, strength, and wisdom.

1. Women only recently gained their rights.
Just a hundred years ago, women in most countries had no rights — no rights to property, education, or even their own children.
Today, we witness a powerful compensatory demand for women’s leadership and development — something that was suppressed for thousands of years by religious dogmas and patriarchal systems.
This modern era of female leadership began only 30–50 years ago. Our Club has been part of this awakening for 20 years.

2. Women have little historical experience in collective leadership.
Aside from the Amazons and the first suffragists, women rarely led together.
That’s why they now need conscious collective leadership — a shared direction, a beacon of purpose, and the ability to unite around higher goals.

3. Women are delicate, emotional, and deeply sensitive.
To lead them, you must rise above emotional turbulence — to observe with a “third eye.”
Sometimes women need to vent, to laugh or cry — but everything returns to harmony if love remains the foundation.
Never give too much weight to emotional reactions. They pass like rain, and sunshine always returns.

4. Toxicity is different from sensitivity.
Some women carry deep wounds and unconsciously project them onto others.
If such pain spreads through a community, it can harm the collective.
In these cases, gentle separation — like a healing amputation — may be needed to protect the organism.
Do not judge or resent such women; let them go with love. They often return once their hearts heal.

5. Women are more resilient than men.
Scientific research proves that women can endure greater emotional and moral strain.
It’s connected to motherhood — the biological ability to turn off pain and focus on survival for the sake of their children.
In times of war, this resilience becomes a sacred skill: not reacting to noise or chaos, but continuing to move toward the light.
If not for strong mothers, there would be no strong sons or daughters.

6. Women cannot tolerate emptiness.
If there is no movement, meaning, or creative energy, women begin to “occupy themselves with each other.”
That’s why a women’s leader must always provide direction — projects, purpose, inspiration.
When there is creation, there is no destruction.
 
7. Women need beauty.
Even in business communities, women crave harmony, elegance, and aesthetic pleasure.
The club’s space must be visually beautiful and emotionally warm.
Flowers, music, light, and small details — they’re not decor, but a language of love and respect.
Beauty is how women feel seen and valued.

8. Women live by heart, not by rules.
Formal regulations are useless without love.
You can write all the policies you want, but without an emotional connection, the community will break apart. A strong women’s organisation is built on trust, mutual love, and calm dialogue — not on authority or fear.
If a community needs to change direction, everyone should agree gracefully.
And if it doesn’t work right away — try again, a thousand times if needed — because love and trust must be stronger than ego.
If you only love yourself, don’t join a women’s club.
If you’re not ready to listen, explain, and unite — don’t seek leadership.

9. Women need an example.
Not a commander, but a lighthouse leader who inspires through strength and calmness.
Women don’t follow orders — they follow energy.
In times of war or crisis, especially in Ukraine, women seek inner strength.
When one woman remains strong, others believe they can too.
This energy of spirit creates a collective quantum field of resilience.

10. Women need recognition.
Every woman wants to be seen, heard, and appreciated.
A simple “thank you” or acknowledgement of her effort reignites her motivation.
A wise leader generously shares light — praises, thanks, and inspires.
Recognition is the fuel of love.

11. Women grow through relationships.
The best version of a woman is born in a circle of other women.
Competition destroys, but sisterhood heals.
Therefore, a woman’s leader must protect the atmosphere of respect, lineage, and warmth, like a mother protects the home.

12. Women sense falseness instantly.
A woman’s leader cannot be “a formal figure.”
They intuitively feel motives, tone, and energy.
The only way to lead is to be authentic.
Even difficult truths are accepted when spoken sincerely.
True allies don’t attack mistakes — they smile, support, and move forward together.

13. Women are alchemists of pain.
Almost every woman has faced loss, betrayal, or fear — but feminine energy can transform suffering into compassion.
That’s why communities must allow space for honesty and healing.
Conflict and renewal are natural parts of growth.
Whatever doesn’t break us — makes us wiser and stronger.

14. Women need a sense of belonging.
They must feel part of something greater — a mission, a movement, a legacy.
A women’s club isn’t just a “group of ladies” — it’s a force of change.
When there is a shared mission, energy flows freely.

15. Women need the energy of celebration.
A woman’s community is a living organism that feeds on joy.
Celebrations, anniversaries, forums, retreats, and photoshoots are not vanity, but renewal.
Without beauty, laughter, and dance, the community fades.

16. Women get tired of drama — but they can’t live without emotion.
Emotion is part of female nature.
The secret is to transform emotions into creativity.
Let women express — cry, laugh, or complain — then rise again like a Phoenix.
A wise leader channels emotional energy into creation, not destruction.

17. Women cannot grow without spirituality.
A woman without a soul connection loses her centre.
The club should be more than a meeting space — it must be a field of awareness, inspiration, and meaning.
Spirituality isn’t religion — it’s the understanding of why we live, why we walk together, what unites us, and what we’re building as a civilisation of femininity.
After 20 years, our mission has crystallised — and continues to evolve.

18. Women need symbols and rituals.
They create a sense of unity and sacredness.
A candle of gratitude, a song, a shared colour — these small things carry deep energy.
Symbols are the language of the heart.

19. Women need a safe space.
A place where they can be themselves — without fear or judgment.
If women start competing or boasting, the space becomes toxic.
True leaders never compare or overpower — they cooperate.
A real women’s community is not a contest of egos; it’s a circle of mutual love and purpose.
Safety builds trust, and trust leads to growth.

20. Women are the power of love — the power of flow.
True female leadership is service to a shared mission.
When the goal is high, personal ambitions fade.
A real leader doesn’t control — she guides.
She leads through understanding, not pressure; with warmth, not cold authority.
This light is born from teamwork, trust, and shared purpose.
A woman’s organisation is not a hierarchy — it’s a circle of light.
When gratitude, love, and respect fill that circle — miracles happen.

After 20 years, I know for sure:
You can’t lead a women’s community through only management rules.
It’s a living alchemy — where wisdom replaces power, attention replaces control, and love replaces fear. When light burns in the centre, every woman begins to shine.
But that light must be sustained — a leader must be an atomic reactor of love, radiating strength even through fatigue, pressure, and endless tasks.
People see the sparkle of events, not the weight of leadership behind them.
So, when you see a woman leading, support her.
Because she’s carrying not just her dream, but the evolution of all women.
Someday, the world will truly understand the value of this sacred work.

Tuesday, 14 October 2025

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Nobel Prize in Economics 2025: Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt named laureates


This image was created using AI as an independent illustration for this article. Any similarities or differences to actual figures are purely coincidental. Copyright: 100% NEWS Editorial Team.

Innovation as the Engine of Prosperity: Why the 2025 Economics Nobel Matters Now

By Prof. Andrii Azarov, International Business Academy Consortium (IBAC)

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has awarded the 2025 Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt “for explaining innovation-driven economic growth”. The monetary award is SEK 11 million: half goes to Mokyr; Aghion and Howitt share the other half equally. The decision was announced in Stockholm on 13 October 2025.

Why these three

The laureates connect the deep mechanics of long-run prosperity to technological change and creative destruction—the competitive process through which new products, firms and ideas displace obsolete ones. Their contributions explain:

  • How sustained growth became possible after centuries of near-stagnation (Mokyr).
  • Which institutional settings amplify or suppress these forces—from open science and engineering competence to competition policy and social insurance.
  • How innovation drives productivity at the firm level yet aggregates to a stable growth path (Aghion–Howitt).

Joel Mokyr: the preconditions of sustained growth

Joel Mokyr (Northwestern University) demonstrated that long-run growth rests on a cumulative stock of useful knowledge and the mechanical competence to apply it. He distinguishes between propositional knowledge (understanding how nature works) and prescriptive knowledge (know-how in production). When institutions lower the cost of accessing and exchanging both—learned societies, journals, standards, apprenticeships—and when society tolerates the disruption of new methods, the feedback loop between science and practice accelerates. That is how the world moved from episodic bursts of progress to an era of continuous improvement.

Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt: growth through creative destruction

Philippe Aghion (Collège de France/INSEAD/LSE) and Peter Howitt (Brown University) formalised a growth paradigm in which innovations replace incumbent technologies. In their framework, entrepreneurs invest in R&D to “escape competition”; successful innovators earn temporary rents; laggards exit or adapt; resources reallocate to higher-productivity uses. Crucially, the model reconciles micro-level turbulence (entry, exit, job reallocation) with macro-level stability (a sustained growth trend), and it illuminates why competition and innovation are linked in a nuanced, often inverted-U relationship: too little rivalry dulls effort; cut-throat rivalry kills returns to R&D.

Why it matters now

With rapid advances in AI, an expensive green transition, and renewed geopolitical fragmentation, the Committee’s choice underscores a simple truth: innovation mechanisms must be deliberately nurtured. Economies that weaken competition, restrict knowledge flows, or entrench incumbents risk a slide into low-productivity equilibria.

Three implications follow:

  1. Make markets contestable. Competition policy and open trade enlarge the payoff to invention and diffusion; protectionism shrinks it.
  2. Cushion the transition, don’t block it. Social insurance, reskilling and labour mobility are complements to innovation—not substitutes—because creative destruction is beneficial system-wide yet locally painful.
  3. Back knowledge infrastructure. Stable funding of basic research, interoperable standards, and open scientific exchange reduce the cost of recombining ideas.

Quick bios

  • Joel Mokyr (b. 1946, Leiden): economic historian whose work shows how the accumulation and diffusion of useful knowledge—paired with engineering practice and tolerant institutions—ignite sustained growth; Professor at Northwestern University.
  • Peter Howitt (b. 1946, Canada): co-author of the Aghion–Howitt model; Professor Emeritus, Brown University; pioneer of the micro-to-macro link in innovation-led growth.
  • Philippe Aghion (b. 1956, Paris): leading scholar of growth, competition and industrial policy; architect of modern Schumpeterian growth theory; Collège de France / INSEAD / LSE.

Five ideas at the core of the prize

  1. Innovation drives growth. Capital deepening explains little without a continual flow of new ideas.
  2. Scale magnifies incentives. Larger, open markets increase the expected returns to R&D; fragmentation erodes them.
  3. Institutions are decisive. Law, education, research infrastructure and a culture that values “useful knowledge” determine whether societies adopt new technology.
  4. Creative destruction is productive—and disruptive. Policy should mitigate private losses (through safety nets and mobility) without muting competition.
  5. Policy is calibration, not dirigisme. Enforce contestable markets; fund foundational science; use targeted, time-bounded incentives (e.g., for green and digital technologies).

What makes the Economics Prize distinctive

Strictly speaking, this award is not among Alfred Nobel’s original prizes. It was established by Sveriges Riksbank in 1968 for the bank’s 300th anniversary and is conferred under the same rules and ceremonies. The first laureates were Ragnar Frisch and Jan Tinbergen in 1969.

Implications for policy and business

For governments

  • Competition & openness: Maintain contestability in product, capital and data markets; avoid creeping protectionism.
  • Smart, not sprawling subsidies: Prioritise enabling platforms (testing facilities, compute for AI research, grid flexibility) over firm-specific bailouts.
  • R&D architecture: Fund basic research; support translational institutes that bridge labs and factories; simplify IP where diffusion is essential.
  • Skills & mobility: Scale apprenticeships and mid-career reskilling in engineering-rich domains; remove barriers to worker and firm entry.

For corporates

  • Invest in discovery & deployment. Balance incremental improvements with a portfolio of bets on general-purpose technologies.
  • Build with openness. University partnerships, shared testbeds and interoperable standards reduce the cost and time to scale.
  • Design for rivalry. Organise internal “neck-and-neck” competition on measurable productivity outcomes, not vanity metrics.

For society

  • Fair transitions. Creative destruction creates aggregate gains but local shocks; robust safety nets and portable benefits are complements to innovation.
  • Trust in science. Predictable rules for research integrity and data governance sustain the social licence for technological change.

At a glance

  • Prize fund: SEK 11 million (Mokyr 1/2; Aghion 1/4; Howitt 1/4) - about 1 million euros. 
  • Award ceremony: 10 December, anniversary of Alfred Nobel’s death.
  • Announcement: 13 October 2025, Stockholm. 

Official facts about the laureates

Joel Mokyr — The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025
Born: 26 July 1946, Leiden, the Netherlands
Affiliation at the time of the award: Northwestern University (Evanston, IL, USA); Eitan Berglas School of Economics, Tel Aviv University (Israel)
Prize motivation: “for having identified the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress”
Prize share: 1/2

Philippe Aghion — The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025
Born: 17 August 1956, Paris, France
Affiliation at the time of the award: Collège de France (Paris), INSEAD (Paris), London School of Economics and Political Science (London)
Prize motivation: “for the theory of sustained growth through creative destruction”
Prize share: 1/4

Peter Howitt — The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025
Born: 31 May 1946, Canada
Affiliation at the time of the award: Brown University (Providence, Rhode Island, USA)
Prize motivation: “for the theory of sustained growth through creative destruction”
Prize share: 1/4

More at the official website: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/

___________________________________________

Editor’s note (100% NEWS): we will continue to track reactions across academia and markets, and how the laureates’ ideas shape economic policy in the EU and the US.

Prepared for the 100% NEWS Information Agency.

 


Advanced information
Scientific background

Sustained economic growth through technological progress 


Saturday, 11 October 2025

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Two Decades of WORLD WOMAN CLUB's Global Legacy

October 2025 marks the dawn of a new functional year for our esteemed community—but this is no ordinary transition. We are embarking on an Anniversary Year, a thrilling prelude to the monumental celebration in March 2026: the 20th Anniversary of the International Club of Successful Women, WORLD WOMAN CLUB.

This milestone transcends a mere date; it is an epochal achievement that validates two decades of pioneering spirit and unwavering dedication to women's empowerment. We have not simply par



A Legacy of Firsts: Forging the Path for Global Sisterhood


The WORLD WOMAN CLUB has consistently set global standards, acting as the undisputed pioneer in international female cooperation:Unprecedented Functioning Mechanism: Before our foundation, the world lacked a truly functional international women's club—a mechanism where women from diverse nations could unite for tangible cooperation, robust dialogue, and sustained interaction. We built that bridge where none existed.

Monday, 6 October 2025

Monday, October 06, 2025

The Nobel Prize 2025 in Medicine: for new treatments for both autoimmune diseases and cancer

The announcements for the 2025 Nobel Prizes have just begun (as of October 6, 2025).

Here are the laureates who have been announced so far:

The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 2025

The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to three scientists "for their discoveries concerning peripheral immune tolerance."

The laureates, who share the prestigious award, are:

  Mary E. Brunkow (USA),

  Fred Ramsdell (USA),

  Shimon Sakaguchi (Japan).

Their groundbreaking work has provided essential understanding of how the body's immune system is regulated to prevent it from attacking its own tissues (autoimmune diseases). These discoveries have laid the foundation for new treatments for both autoimmune diseases and cancer. 

Alfred Nobel, the invent tor of dynamite, once branded the "merchant of death".

Saturday, 27 September 2025

Saturday, September 27, 2025

80th UN General Assembly

Outcomes of the 80th UN General Assembly

In September 2025, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) embarked on its 80th session, a symbolic milestone for the world body. The session began officially on 9 September 2025 and stretches through 8 September 2026, under the presidency of Annalena Baerbock of Germany. 

From the first days of high-level diplomacy, a number of key outcomes and signals have emerged. While many resolutions and deeper deals remain to be negotiated, the early weeks of UNGA 80 have already produced meaningful developments in global diplomacy, agenda setting, and institutional reform efforts.

Below is a survey of the most significant early outcomes, their implications, and the challenges that lie ahead.

Key Early Outcomes & Developments

Friday, 26 September 2025

Friday, September 26, 2025

Who Is Behind the Jaguar Land Rover Cyberattack? Possible Motives

The crippling cyberattack that shut down Jaguar Land Rover’s factories in September 2025 has left one burning question unanswered: who orchestrated it? While British officials remain cautious and have not publicly named a suspect, analysts, cybersecurity experts, and policymakers are already pointing to possible culprits among the world’s cyber powers.

Russia: Destabilization and Retaliation

Russia is a prime suspect whenever a large-scale cyberattack hits Western infrastructure. The Kremlin has a long track record of using cyber operations as tools of hybrid warfare—undermining economies, spreading uncertainty, and signaling political strength without firing a shot.

Possible Motives:

  • Economic sabotage: Britain has been a strong supporter of sanctions against Moscow in the wake of the Ukraine conflict. Disrupting a flagship British manufacturer could be seen as a form of retaliation.
  • Psychological pressure: A high-profile attack on JLR sends a message that no sector is safe, attempting to erode public confidence in the UK’s ability to protect critical industries.
  • Proxy message to Europe: By targeting a company with a global brand and significant exports, Russia could remind the EU and NATO of their vulnerability to asymmetric attacks.

China: Industrial Espionage or Strategic Disruption

Thursday, 25 September 2025

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Cyberattack Crisis at Jaguar Land Rover



How a Digital Assault Stalled Britain’s Luxury Car Giant

In September 2025, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), the British automotive icon behind Jaguar and Range Rover, found itself in the grip of one of the most damaging cyber incidents in the history of the UK manufacturing sector. A sophisticated cyberattack crippled JLR’s IT infrastructure, forcing the company to suspend production across multiple plants, halt retail operations, and scramble to contain the fallout.

What started as a technical disruption quickly snowballed into a crisis with economic, political, and social consequences stretching far beyond the walls of JLR’s factories.

The Cyberattack That Stopped the Assembly Lines

In early September, JLR reported “a significant cyber incident” affecting its IT systems. In a defensive move, the company proactively shut down its digital infrastructure, including factory control systems, vehicle registration platforms, and retail networks. This decision effectively froze the production of Range Rovers, Defenders, and Jaguar vehicles across three major UK plants.

The shutdown, initially expected to last a matter of days, has now extended for weeks. JLR has confirmed that operations will not resume before October 1, 2025, meaning nearly a month of lost output at a time when demand for luxury SUVs remains strong globally.

Wednesday, 24 September 2025

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Thirty Years of Resonance: Revisiting Beijing '95 and Hillary Clinton's Defining Speech "Human rights are women’s rights"

This September 4th marks a pivotal moment in the history of the global fight for gender equality: the 30th anniversary of the opening of the United Nations Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing. Convened under the theme “Action for Equality, Development and Peace,” the two-week gathering in 1995 was more than a diplomatic meeting; it was a watershed that redefined the scope of women's rights as fundamental human rights and provided a revolutionary blueprint for progress. At its heart was a speech by then-U.S. First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, an address so powerful and unyielding that it echoed across the world, challenging entrenched power structures and giving a bold, new voice to a global movement.


The Stage: A World Gathering in Beijing

The Beijing Conference was unprecedented in its scale and ambition. It brought together 17,000 participants, including delegates from 189 governments, and an additional 30,000 activists who attended a parallel NGO Forum. The goal was to assess the progress since the previous women's conference in Nairobi (1985) and to adopt a new set of commitments.

The context was a world rapidly changing after the Cold War, yet one where discrimination and violence against women remained pervasive and often legally enshrined. The conference aimed to shift the conversation from theoretical discussions to concrete, actionable policies. After intense negotiations, the crowning achievement of the diplomatic effort was the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, a comprehensive document that outlined 12 critical areas of concern—from women and poverty to education and training, violence against women, and the girl-child. It was, and remains, the most progressive blueprint for advancing women's rights globally.

"Women's Rights Are Human Rights": The Speech That Changed the Conversation

Monday, 15 September 2025

Monday, September 15, 2025

Prince Harry in Ukraine

Prince Harry made a surprise visit to Kyiv on Friday, after an invitation by an organisation that supports Ukrainians with life-changing injuries caused by the war.

The Duke of Sussex arrived by train and said he wanted to do "everything possible" to help the recovery of injured military personnel.

Superhumans, which helps provide those injured with prosthetic limbs and rehabilitation, told the BBC that it invited Prince Harry to Ukraine.

There are tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians with amputations as a result of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine – numbers vary, as Ukraine doesn't give precise statistics on military casualties.

The prince took part in a panel discussion at Kyiv's National Museum of the History of Ukraine in the Second World War - where he advised those leaving military service that there is "light at the end of the tunnel".

"You will feel lost at times, like you lack purpose," said Harry, who spent 10 years in the British army.

"Don't stay silent. Silence will hold you in the dark.

"Open up to your friends and family, because in doing so you give them permission to do the same."

Among the people Harry met during the trip was war veteran Vasyl Tamulis, who told the Reuters news agency: "My main goal was to get a photograph with him because not many people have a photograph with [a] prince."

"Being selected for Invictus Games unites people and motivates because it is a very difficult selection process," he added, referring to the international multi-sport competition Harry set up for injured and sick military service personnel - both serving and veterans.

The duke also met privately with Ukraine's Minister for Veteran Affairs Natalia Kalmykova and attended a fundraising lunch in support of the Superhumans Centre in Lviv.

Ahead of the trip, Prince Harry told the Guardian: "We cannot stop the war but what we can do is do everything we can to help the recovery process."

"We can continue to humanise the people involved in this war and what they are going through."

The paper reported that Harry was joined by a team from his Invictus Games Foundation, which he launched in 2014.

Ukraine was given special permission to compete in the games by President Zelensky in 2022, just months after the war began.

During the opening ceremony, the prince said the world was "united" with the country.

His visit to Kyiv came after the Sussex's charitable foundation Archewell said on Wednesday that it had donated $500,000 (£369,000) to projects supporting injured children from Ukraine and Gaza.

Saturday, 13 September 2025

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Possible Scenarios for the End of the War




1) Sudden change of power and an RF elite “chain reaction”

In the event of the sudden incapacity or death of the president, the prime minister would automatically become acting head of state. Elections would need to be held within three months, and the interim leader would face restricted powers (for example, no ability to dissolve parliament or initiate constitutional changes). This would trigger fierce competition among key power groups — the Security Council, security services, the presidential administration and regional elites — to control the transition. The recent appointment of Sergei Shoigu as Secretary of the Security Council strengthens that institution’s role in any succession process. A rapid “elite compromise” could emerge to stabilise the situation, possibly leading to a frozen front line.

2) Consolidation of power and a “North Korean turn”

Further tightening of the vertical of power — including the rolling back of direct mayoral elections, strengthened propaganda, a command economy and deeper ties with North Korea — points to a trajectory of “fortress Russia”. This would mean a protracted low-intensity war and a closure of political channels for compromise, mirroring elements of Pyongyang’s model.

3) Economic shock and a shift of authority towards the security services