Possible Scenarios for the End of the War

1) Sudden change of power and an RF elite “chain reaction”

In the event of the sudden incapacity or death of the president, the prime minister would automatically become acting head of state. Elections would need to be held within three months, and the interim leader would face restricted powers (for example, no ability to dissolve parliament or initiate constitutional changes). This would trigger fierce competition among key power groups — the Security Council, security services, the presidential administration and regional elites — to control the transition. The recent appointment of Sergei Shoigu as Secretary of the Security Council strengthens that institution’s role in any succession process. A rapid “elite compromise” could emerge to stabilise the situation, possibly leading to a frozen front line.

2) Consolidation of power and a “North Korean turn”

Further tightening of the vertical of power — including the rolling back of direct mayoral elections, strengthened propaganda, a command economy and deeper ties with North Korea — points to a trajectory of “fortress Russia”. This would mean a protracted low-intensity war and a closure of political channels for compromise, mirroring elements of Pyongyang’s model.

3) Economic shock and a shift of authority towards the security services

Blood Falls: A Century-Old Antarctic Enigma Unveiled

Introduction

Blood Falls is a mysterious natural phenomenon in East Antarctica that still evokes a captivating mix of scientific interest and eerie strangeness. A stream of blood-red water flows out from under the Taylor Glacier and spills onto the icy surface of Lake Bonney. First observed more than a century ago, it remains one of the most fascinating subjects of polar research.

Geographical Location

 Coordinates of Blood Falls: approx. 77°42′60″ S, 162°15′60″ E (decimal: −77.7167, 162.2667).

• Located on the western edge of Lake Bonney in Taylor Valley, one of the McMurdo Dry Valleys — a unique ice desert in Victoria Land.
• Taylor Glacier itself extends some 54 km from the Victoria Land plateau to the western end of the valley.  

Discovery and Research History

1. Discovery (1911)
   The falls were first described by Australian geologist Thomas Griffith Taylor during the Terra Nova Expedition (British Antarctic Expedition, 1910–1913, led by Robert Falcon Scott). He noticed a “blood-like” stain at the base of the glacier, which was later named after him.

2. Early Hypotheses
   Initially, researchers thought the red colour came from red algae. Later chemical analysis proved that the effect was due to iron oxides — essentially rust, formed as iron-rich brine oxidised on contact with air.

3. Subglacial Reservoir Discovery
   In 2009, geomicrobiologist Jill Mikucki and her colleagues confirmed the existence of highly saline, iron-rich, anoxic (oxygen-free) water feeding Blood Falls. They also discovered microorganisms capable of metabolising sulfur and iron without light or oxygen.

4. Hydrological Mapping and Modern Methods
   In 2017, a team led by Jessica Badgeley and Erin Pettit, with scientists from the University of Alaska and Colorado College, used radio-echo sounding to trace the hidden path of subglacial water. They revealed that the brine reservoir connects directly to Blood Falls, solving a 100-year mystery about the water’s origin and movement.

Key Scientific Facts

Business Markets at the Edge of Economic and Political Turbulence

As the world edges towards heightened geopolitical confrontation and economic uncertainty, business markets are entering a new and complex phase. Investors, corporates and policymakers are simultaneously contending with disrupted supply chains, inflationary pressures, technological competition and the prospect of tighter regulation. What emerges is not a uniform crisis, but rather a mosaic of risks and opportunities that will define global commerce for the coming decade.

Financial Markets: Risk Appetite Shrinks

Equities have demonstrated increasing volatility in response to global tensions. Investors are shifting away from high-growth technology and speculative assets towards defensive sectors such as healthcare, utilities and defence. Central banks, particularly the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are navigating a delicate balance between curbing inflation and sustaining economic growth.

Government bonds are once again attractive, serving as safe havens amidst turbulence. Yet persistent fiscal deficits in many advanced economies raise questions about long-term debt sustainability. Currency markets, meanwhile, are reflecting political realities: the dollar remains resilient, the euro is pressured by energy insecurity, and emerging market currencies are highly sensitive to capital outflows.

Energy and Commodities: Supply Insecurity Persists

Energy markets remain structurally fragile. The push for diversification away from Russian energy, combined with the uncertain trajectory of China’s demand, has driven sharp price fluctuations in oil and natural gas. Renewable energy investment is accelerating across Europe and the UK, yet infrastructure bottlenecks and supply chain constraints limit rapid scaling.

In commodities, agricultural markets remain exposed to climatic shocks, while metals such as lithium and rare earths are increasingly politicised as strategic resources for the green transition. Businesses dependent on these inputs face both cost volatility and geopolitical risk.

Technology and Supply Chains: Strategic Realignments

Technology markets are now as much geopolitical as they are commercial. The US–China rivalry has accelerated decoupling in semiconductors, cloud computing and artificial intelligence. Western firms are reconsidering exposure to Chinese supply chains, while Beijing is investing heavily in domestic capacity.

This decoupling creates costs in the short term — higher prices, fragmented standards — but also spurs innovation in alternative markets, including South-East Asia and India. For businesses, the strategic imperative is resilience rather than just efficiency: multiple suppliers, regional diversification and digital security are now as critical as cost control.

Labour and Consumer Trends: Confidence Under Pressure

The world braces for a major war: Putin at an impasse — the West ramps up its military power

Putin’s inertia and Europe’s unease

While Russia’s President Vladimir Putin continues policies that stoke international tension, his military push has reached a dead end. Setbacks at the front, exhausted resources and sanctions are constraining the Kremlin’s ambitions. Despite mobilisation efforts, Russia has yet to achieve decisive results. Meanwhile, the West — especially advanced economies — is markedly strengthening its defences, seemingly preparing for a new, large-scale phase on the global stage.

Record defence spending

According to SIPRI, global military expenditure in 2024 reached $2.718 trillion, up nearly 9.4% year on year — the steepest rise since the Cold War. In Europe the surge is particularly striking: spending rose 17% to $693 billion. The biggest spenders include the United States, China, Russia, Germany and India.

Europe moves beyond its previous posture

The European Union has hit a record high for defence outlays. Almost every member state increased its 2024 budget, many by 10% or more. Germany, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands are among those taking decisive steps to bolster defence.

Germany aims to more than double the size of its active army — from around 62,000 to roughly 160,000–200,000 personnel by 2035. Sweden plans to lift defence spending to 2.6% of GDP by 2028 and stand up four permanent brigades.

The UK and the US: strategy and production

The United Kingdom is reinforcing its defence through major investment. By 2027 spending is set to reach 2.5% of GDP, with priority given to ammunition production and the national nuclear programme.

The United States remains the world’s largest military budget: nearly $1 trillion in 2024, about 37% of global expenditure.

New hubs of arms production