Business Markets at the Edge of Economic and Political Turbulence

As the world edges towards heightened geopolitical confrontation and economic uncertainty, business markets are entering a new and complex phase. Investors, corporates and policymakers are simultaneously contending with disrupted supply chains, inflationary pressures, technological competition and the prospect of tighter regulation. What emerges is not a uniform crisis, but rather a mosaic of risks and opportunities that will define global commerce for the coming decade.

Financial Markets: Risk Appetite Shrinks

Equities have demonstrated increasing volatility in response to global tensions. Investors are shifting away from high-growth technology and speculative assets towards defensive sectors such as healthcare, utilities and defence. Central banks, particularly the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are navigating a delicate balance between curbing inflation and sustaining economic growth.

Government bonds are once again attractive, serving as safe havens amidst turbulence. Yet persistent fiscal deficits in many advanced economies raise questions about long-term debt sustainability. Currency markets, meanwhile, are reflecting political realities: the dollar remains resilient, the euro is pressured by energy insecurity, and emerging market currencies are highly sensitive to capital outflows.

Energy and Commodities: Supply Insecurity Persists

Energy markets remain structurally fragile. The push for diversification away from Russian energy, combined with the uncertain trajectory of China’s demand, has driven sharp price fluctuations in oil and natural gas. Renewable energy investment is accelerating across Europe and the UK, yet infrastructure bottlenecks and supply chain constraints limit rapid scaling.

In commodities, agricultural markets remain exposed to climatic shocks, while metals such as lithium and rare earths are increasingly politicised as strategic resources for the green transition. Businesses dependent on these inputs face both cost volatility and geopolitical risk.

Technology and Supply Chains: Strategic Realignments

Technology markets are now as much geopolitical as they are commercial. The US–China rivalry has accelerated decoupling in semiconductors, cloud computing and artificial intelligence. Western firms are reconsidering exposure to Chinese supply chains, while Beijing is investing heavily in domestic capacity.

This decoupling creates costs in the short term — higher prices, fragmented standards — but also spurs innovation in alternative markets, including South-East Asia and India. For businesses, the strategic imperative is resilience rather than just efficiency: multiple suppliers, regional diversification and digital security are now as critical as cost control.

Labour and Consumer Trends: Confidence Under Pressure

The world braces for a major war: Putin at an impasse — the West ramps up its military power

Putin’s inertia and Europe’s unease

While Russia’s President Vladimir Putin continues policies that stoke international tension, his military push has reached a dead end. Setbacks at the front, exhausted resources and sanctions are constraining the Kremlin’s ambitions. Despite mobilisation efforts, Russia has yet to achieve decisive results. Meanwhile, the West — especially advanced economies — is markedly strengthening its defences, seemingly preparing for a new, large-scale phase on the global stage.

Record defence spending

According to SIPRI, global military expenditure in 2024 reached $2.718 trillion, up nearly 9.4% year on year — the steepest rise since the Cold War. In Europe the surge is particularly striking: spending rose 17% to $693 billion. The biggest spenders include the United States, China, Russia, Germany and India.

Europe moves beyond its previous posture

The European Union has hit a record high for defence outlays. Almost every member state increased its 2024 budget, many by 10% or more. Germany, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands are among those taking decisive steps to bolster defence.

Germany aims to more than double the size of its active army — from around 62,000 to roughly 160,000–200,000 personnel by 2035. Sweden plans to lift defence spending to 2.6% of GDP by 2028 and stand up four permanent brigades.

The UK and the US: strategy and production

The United Kingdom is reinforcing its defence through major investment. By 2027 spending is set to reach 2.5% of GDP, with priority given to ammunition production and the national nuclear programme.

The United States remains the world’s largest military budget: nearly $1 trillion in 2024, about 37% of global expenditure.

New hubs of arms production

China’s Parade of Power: Why the US and Europe Risk Defeat

 The 3 September 2025 parade revealed a fractured West — and a China no longer hiding its ambitions

By Professor Andrew Azarov, Business and Economics, International Business academy Consortium (UK)

Part I. Introduction and General Context

On 3 September 2025, the world witnessed an event that is difficult to overestimate: a grand military parade in Beijing, organised to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. At first glance, it was just a traditional celebration, a demonstration of strength and discipline. In reality, however, it was something much greater: a political declaration, a strategic manifesto, and a signal to the entire world that the international balance of power is shifting rapidly.

China demonstrated not only military might but also its ambition to become the architectural centre of a new world order. From columns of intercontinental ballistic missiles DF-5C to the latest unmanned systems, from the strict synchrony of the parade to the carefully choreographed presence of foreign leaders – every element was aimed not at the domestic audience, but at the global stage.

And here lies the main challenge for the West: the United States and Europe were left standing aside. If a decade ago such parades were perceived in Washington as mere symbolic rhetoric, today they form part of Beijing’s systemic strategy. Yet America, mired in its own political crises, failed to respond in time and to develop a coherent containment strategy.

The mistake of the United States

Over the last 20 years, the United States has missed its moment. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan exhausted resources. Political polarisation paralysed the capacity for long-term planning. The “America First” policy alienated allies and eroded trust. Meanwhile, China was building strength – not only militarily, but also economically, diplomatically, and technologically.

Symbolically, the parade in Beijing took place at a moment when the US is no longer perceived in Asia as the sole guarantor of security. Its role has become debatable, its words less weighty, and its commitments increasingly questioned.

Europe in disarray

The European Union finds itself in an even more vulnerable position. Formally, it supports Ukraine and speaks of strategic autonomy. In practice, however, it is divided by the interests of individual states. Germany and France increasingly engage in independent talks with China, Italy wavers between Brussels and Beijing, while Eastern Europe looks to Washington but is increasingly doubtful of its ability to deliver protection.

The United Kingdom, following Brexit, also lost much of its traditional influence as a bridge between the US and the EU. London is trying to strengthen its presence in the Indo-Pacific, but without coordination with allies, such efforts are reduced in effectiveness.

A new centre of power

The key message of the Beijing parade was clear: the world is entering an era of three poles. The first is the United States, formally retaining leadership but increasingly weakened by internal crises. The second is Europe, unable to produce a common strategy. And the third is China, which no longer merely aspires but openly asserts its right to global leadership.

This is what makes the 2025 parade historic. For the first time since the Cold War, the West does not hold a monopoly on power, technology, and alliances. More than that, the event highlighted a fracture that Beijing is determined to exploit to the fullest.

Russia-Ukraine War and trade wars at the SCO Summit 2025

The leaders of China and India say there is now deepening trust between them after years of tension that includes a long-running border dispute.

China's President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) in the port city of Tianjin. It is Modi's first time in China in seven years.

Xi told Modi that China and India should be partners, not rivals, while Modi said there was now an "atmosphere of peace and stability" between them.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is also at the summit, attended by more than 20 world leaders, which this year has been overshadowed by trade wars with the US.

US President Donald Trump has imposed steep tariffs on Indian goods as punishment for Delhi's continued purchase of Russian oil, and Putin faces threats of sanctions for his ongoing war on Ukraine.

As the US-India relationship faces increasing headwinds, Modi is moving closer to Xi. Both countries are not only the most populous, but also have two of the largest economies in the world.

Modi announced that flights between India and China - suspended since deadly troop clashes on their shared Himalayan border in 2020 - would resume, without providing a timeline.

Xi said "both sides need to approach and handle our relationship from a strategic height and long-term perspective" and that "it is the right choice for both sides to be friends".

The SCO summit itself is largely symbolic but will allow leaders to air common grievances and shared interests. It comes days before a massive military parade in Beijing that will mark 80 years since the end of World War Two.

There are 10 member states in the grouping - including Russia, Pakistan and Iran - and 16 dialogue partners and observers.

Putin, who is a close ally of China, arrived to a red carpet welcome in Tianjin on Sunday.

The SCO was created by China, Russia and four Central Asian countries in 2001 as a countermeasure to limit the influence of Western alliances such as Nato.

This year's gathering is the largest since it was founded.

Jessica Berlin: Stop Being Shocked by Trump. Start Stopping Russia.

Jessica Berlin: "Trump’s incompetence on Russia is matched only by Europe’s incompetence on Trump".

It’s been over ten years since Donald Trump descended a golden escalator to announce his candidacy for U.S. president. Europe has been clutching its collective pearls over how to deal with him ever since.

In that time, we have had an entire four-year term to observe his incompetence, egomania, and erratic behavior; a four-year Biden breather during which we were warned of and could have prepared for Trump’s return; and now, more than half a year into his second term, clear evidence that he is just as vindictive and incompetent as he seemed on the campaign trail. Yet European leaders still act surprised when he does something reckless or dangerous – like, say, invite Vladimir Putin to a bilateral summit in Alaska.

For over a decade, European leaders have been caught in a reactive loop: shocked when Trump behaves exactly as he always does, relieved when he momentarily pivots, paralysed when he inevitably reverts. This is not grand strategy, it’s political whiplash.

Startup World Cup Championship 2025 WINNERS

The 25th Anniversary Startup World Cup Championship 2025 in the Maldives is a unique opportunity for both seasoned entrepreneurs and young startup innovators to elevate their businesses, expand their networks, and gain global recognition. 

The most significant event of the year in the world of education is the global arena for showcasing your knowledge, creative ideas, and business skills - the Startup World Cup Championship!

The results of the Startup World Championship 2025 show the triumph of intelligence over the mundane, the triumph of action over laziness, and the triumph of team play over loneliness.

So, the results of the year are as follows: